Economic and market outlook
Gain expert perspective on the potential risks and opportunities ahead in the latest economic outlook published by our global Chief Investment Office (CIO).
Our latest reports
CIO Memo
China equities: closing the tactical trading call
Soft macroeconomic data, depreciation pressures on the Chinese yuan and market volatility signal limited near-term upside for Chinese equities, though we expect a recovery in the second half of the year.
Mar. 26, 2024
CIO Memo
Early interest rate turnaround in Switzerland
The Swiss National Bank has taken the lead as the first major central bank to cut interest rates amid subsiding inflationary pressures. The move sent a signal that the SNB would protect the economy from the consequences of an excessively strong franc.
Mar. 21, 2024
CIO Memo
FOMC: Raising the bar
The Federal Reserve's March update to its economic projections implied that three 25-basis-point interest-rate cuts remain in store for 2024.
Mar. 20, 2024
CIO Memo
Japan: the start of positive interest rates
In a landmark event, the Bank of Japan ended its negative interest-rate policy and yield curve control, though monetary policies remain accommodative.
Mar. 19, 2024
CIO Insights quarterly report
CIO PERSPECTIVES: Q2 2024 Update
In the first issue of our new quarterly publication, we update our forecasts for 2024 on the macroeconomic front, as well as for equities, fixed income, commodities and foreign exchange.
Mar. 18, 2024
CIO Memo
Japan: when will the BoJ pivot?
Wage hikes by some leading manufacturers have set the tone for industry-wide pay rises. Japanese authorities are closely watching industry pay revisions as they expect it to trigger a “virtuous cycle of growth”. However, BoJ Governor Ueda recently played down the state of the Japanese economy, given mixed data signals.
Mar. 13, 2024
CIO Memo
U.K. economy: on the way out of recession
The U.K. economy started the new year with moderate growth, and the rebound should give the Bank of England the cover it needs to stick to its wait-and-see approach. That could sustain the British pound's relative strength in the near term.
Mar. 13, 2024
CIO Memo
U.S. CPI: Patience is key
U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed an annualised increase of +3.2% year-on-year (YoY), moving higher from last month’s reading. On a month-on-month basis (MoM) Core CPI, which excludes Food and Energy, remained at +0.4%.
Mar. 12, 2024
CIO Memo
Nonfarm payrolls: Mixed report strengthens case for June cut
The latest Nonfarm payrolls report delivered higher-than-expected jobs figures for the month of February, with significant downward revisions also seen for the previous two months.
Mar. 08, 2024
CIO Memo
ECB hints at interest rate reversal in June
The prospect of an imminent turnaround in interest rates should continue to provide the equity markets with a slight tailwind.
Mar. 07, 2024
CIO Memo
U.S. CPI: Taking a detour
Stronger-than-expected U.S. inflation figures will reinforce the Fed's cautious approach to a potential interest-rate cut in the near future.
Feb. 13, 2024
CIO Memo
Nonfarm payrolls: Kicking the cut down the road
The U.S. jobs report for January showed the labour market on a stronger footing than forecast. That could mean that the Federal Reserve will hold off on interest-rate cuts for longer than had recently been expected.
Feb. 02, 2024
CIO Memo
India: Interim budget targets strong fiscal improvement
A budget focused on strong fiscal consolidation unsurprisingly gave support to fixed income markets.
Feb. 01, 2024
CIO Memo
BoE on hold as it’s "not there yet"
The Bank of England left interest rates unchanged as expected, but it also softened its language, dropping a warning about the potential for further policy tightening should inflationary pressures re-emerge.
Feb. 01, 2024
CIO Memo
U.S. FOMC: Looking for confidence
The Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged and signalled that it is yet to be fully convinced that a rate cut is imminent.
Jan. 30, 2024