Key takeaways:

  • The soft macroeconomic data and CNY depreciation pressures prompted us to close the tactical trading call on Chinese equities which have generated positive returns since February 23. 
  • CNY showed high volatility last Friday, which suggested market weakness. Earlier this week the market stabilised somewhat.
  • While we see limited near-term upside for Chinese equities, we will scrutinise economic data for confirmation of a Chinese manufacturing turnaround, which would probably support market sentiment in the longer term.

 

1. What has happened?

Chinese equities have shown positive returns since we highlighted “a tactical trading opportunity” they were offering in our CIO Viewpoint Equity “China equities: selective opportunities” published on February 23. The China CSI 300 was up 1.0% since February 23, and our three recommended sectors showed particularly strong performances (MSCI China consumer discretionary +6.3%, MSCI China information technology +16%, Solactive China clean energy +5.9%). We think it is now time to close the tactical trading call on Chinese equities. 

 

The CNY came under renewed pressure last week amid market expectations of further easing by the PBoC to stimulate the economy. Allowing a weaker renminbi fixing last Friday has indicated comfort around moderate depreciation and volatility, to provide monetary stimulus, also giving way to 7.20, which had been previously defended. 

 

On Monday, the PBoC intervened by fixing the daily reference rate for the CNY at 7.0996, a strong signal to support the currency amid weak market sentiment. State-owned banks came to the rescue by buying CNY and selling USD in the onshore market. Although these measures provided temporary support, concerns remain around further currency depreciation as market sentiment remains negative. 

 

Property market conditions showed further weakness despite the loosening of purchase restrictions in many tier-1 and tier-2 cities. New home and secondary market sales have contracted significantly year to date compared to last year. Travel data normalised after the Lunar New Year festival, as flight activity eased visibly in recent weeks compared to end-February. Besides, FDI continued to drop, declining -19.9% YoY in Jan-Feb despite a positive set of macro data following the Lunar New Year holidays.

 

2. How did markets react?

The CNH and CNY were down -0.7% and -0.4% respectively on Friday vs. the previous day’s close. However, PBoC intervention provided much-needed support and the CNH and CNY were up +0.3% on Monday and remained flat on Tuesday. However, sentiment in the Chinese equity market remained weak. The CSI 300 was down -1.0%, the Shanghai Composite dropped -1.5% and the Hang Seng fell -1.5% since Thursday.

 

3. What does it mean for investors?

Given the relatively weak domestic economy, there is more room for the PBoC to ease monetary policy further. Monetary loosening could probably lead to more yuan weakness. Hence the PBoC needs to tread carefully in order to prevent a vicious cycle. Friday's weaker CNY fixing could have been interpreted as a display of confidence by the PBoC to allow some CNY depreciation and more volatility, thus supporting exporters with a more competitively priced currency, which in turn would have provided some tailwind to the equities market. However, instead currency weakness was interpreted as a sign of instability and has impeded confidence, leading to an immediate knee-jerk reaction in Chinese equities. This is an indication that sentiment is still hampered and needs more time to stabilise. 

 

We believe that U.S.-China geopolitical tensions may also affect sentiment in the near term. The U.S. House Foreign Affairs Committee unanimously passed a bill last week to extend the U.S.-China Science & Technology Agreement for another six months but tightened the scrutiny for further renewal. Additionally, four bipartisan bills were introduced which would reduce U.S. investments in China. We therefore decided to close the tactical trading call on Chinese equities. 

 

This week, markets will look out for industrial profit growth for February, which will give an insight into the performance of Chinese corporates. PMI numbers for March to be released next week should confirm the turnaround in the manufacturing sector. We recently marginally upgraded our 2024 GDP growth forecast for China to 4.8% from 4.7%. We also expect the PBoC to make more rate cuts to support the domestic economy, and the central government may implement more fiscal policies to support consumption and investment. With these measures, China’s economic condition may likely improve as we approach H2 this year. 

 

With no immediate positive catalyst, we decided to close our tactical trading call on Chinese equities. Having said that, we expect a recovery in Chinese equities to play out in H2 2024 as the stimulus measures gradually take effect.

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  • Glossary

    China-A Shares are securities of companies incorporated in mainland China that trade on either Shanghai or Shenzhen stock exchanges and trade in Chinese Yuan. A shares can only be traded by residents of China.

     

    CNH is renminbi/yuan traded offshore from mainland China with its value determined by free market trade.

     

    CNY is the currency code for the Chinese renminbi/yuan traded within mainland China.

     

    The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the overall change in consumer prices based on a representative basket of goods and services over time.

     

    Gross domestic product (GDP) is the standard measure of the value added created through the production of goods and services in a country during a certain period.

     

    The Hang Seng Index (HSI) includes the 50 largest companies traded on the Hong Kong stock exchange.

     

    Hang Seng Tech index represents the 30 largest technology companies listed in Hong Kong that have high business exposure to technology themes.

     

    The MSCI China Index captures large and mid cap shares representing about 85% of the China equity universe.

     

    The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), is a deputy-cabinet level agency directly under the State Council of the People's Republic of China.

     

    People’s Bank of China (PBoC) is the central bank of the People’s Republic of China.

     

    The Producer Price Index (PPI) measures the change in the prices paid to producers of goods and services.

     

    Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) is an economic indicator comprised of monthly reports and surveys from private sector manufacturing firms. The index surveys product managers, who are the individuals that buy the materials needed for a company to manufacture its products.

     

    The Shanghai Composite Index contains all shares traded on the Shanghai exchange.

     

    The Shenzhen Component Index is an index of 500 stocks that are traded at the Shenzhen Stock Exchange (SZSE).

     

    USD is the currency code for the U.S. Dollar.

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