Investment themes

On Wednesday, President Trump announced his decision to put a 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs on all countries except China. The reciprocal tariffs, which were announced a week prior, were set to take effect on April 9th and targeted a broad range of trading partners.

The U.S. administration has now announced the details of its “reciprocal” tariffs on trading partners. In this CIO Perspectives Memo, “Liberation Day” rattles markets, we discuss how they will work, what could happen next and the implications for economies, financial markets and investors.

Long term Capital Market Assumptions (LTCMA) form a vital component of systematic long-term asset allocation approaches. This report highlights significant developments to our 10-year (i.e. 2025-2034) asset class return assumptions since the last review, and the impact of macroeconomic and monetary policy developments, amongst other factors. It presents LTCMA for selected sub-asset class indices within equities, fixed income and commodities.

In this PERSPECTIVES Viewpoint FX: Paradigm shift in the currencies markets – we examine the factors influencing the development of exchange rates in the next twelve months and present our corresponding forecasts.

These changes should accelerate Europe’s path to decarbonization, reinforcing the EU’s leadership in climate policy. Industries will need to adapt to tighter regulations, while investors navigate an evolving carbon market with new risks and opportunities. The coming years could shape the balance between economic growth and environmental responsibility, potentially setting a precedent for future carbon pricing mechanisms worldwide.

In this PERSPECTIVES Viewpoint, we look at joint financing options and possible growth effects of increased defence spending, as well as special features within the European defence industry and their relevance for investors.

In this PERSPECTIVES Special, we investigate the structural drivers of healthcare along with the recent developments and main opportunities in the sector. We also provide a market outlook focused on earnings prospects, valuation, and potential cyclical tailwinds.

Christian Nolting, Global Chief Investment Officer for the Private Bank, discusses his predictions for Sunday's German federal elections, the possible outcomes and the implications for investors under different scenarios, with Nico Nonnenmacher, the Private Bank's Head of Communications.

In this PERSPECTIVES Special we look at both the prospects for tariffs implementation and their possible impact on U.S. and European equities.

In this PERSPECTIVES Special we will look for how any potential end to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine might impact financial markets.

In our Future Fundamentals podcast, Naoko Ishii, Executive Vice President of the University of Tokyo and Director of the Center for Global Commons, and Markus Müller, our Chief Investment Officer for Sustainability, discuss putting nature on the balance sheet and how to build a coordinated financial response to this global challenge.

On January 20, DeepSeek, an AI spin-off from a local Chinese hedge fund, launched a free AI assistant app. By yesterday, it had overtaken other well-known AI assistants in the number of smartphone app downloads. With its growing traction, the underlying details of its development gained attention as well.

In this PERSPECTIVES Special we examine the reasons behind the UK assets’ bumpy start to the year. Issues covered include the re-pricing of global interest rate expectations, vulnerabilities from the UK’s “twin deficit”, the fiscal outlook, Bank of England policy options and the outlook for sterling, UK bonds and UK equities.

In this CIO Special report, we discuss details of the fiscal package announced by the National People’s Congress’ Standing Committee meeting and provide an update on the macroeconomic performance of the Chinese economy.

Our Global Chief Investment Officer, Christian Nolting, provides an initial assessment of the U.S. election results and their market implications.

As we inch closer to the U.S. presidential election, our new CIO Special explores the current state of the political landscape, key issues and policies that continue to shape the narrative for the race and its potential impact on a range of sectors for equity investors.

Portfolio decarbonization will become an increasingly important topic. Investors need to understand the key issues involved.

In this CIO Special report we examine what’s driving Earth Overshoot Day and where innovation is offering hope for our planet's future.

Carbon markets are likely to play a major role in promoting sustainability and innovation, offering new opportunities for investors and policymakers alike.

With the French election resulting in a hung parliament, we discuss three possible political scenarios and their investment implications.

After Labour’s victory, the prospect of policy stability and cyclical growth will make UK assets worth a second look. We outline investment implications.

The renewable energy sector is experiencing remarkable growth. However, this rapid expansion faces challenges. In this report, we explain why the renewable energy sector’s trajectory remains positive.

China announced more measures to support the property sector at a national government meeting on May 17. The stimulus measures come at a time when China’s property sector continues to weaken with price declines and lower transaction volumes.

The Bank of England (BoE) maintained its key interest rate at 5.25% for the sixth consecutive meeting last Thursday. Signals from the Monetary Policy Council (MPC) indicate a potential rate cut as early as June 20, however.

This CIO Special addresses Spain’s recent positive economic performance, its fiscal balance situation and the prospects for Spanish debt & equity assets.

The recent positive performance by Chinese equities has been mainly driven by a modest improvement in macroeconomic data.

Italy has weathered recent economic crises, including COVID-19 and the European energy shock, better than expected. In Q4 2023, Italy’s GDP growth was +0.2% QoQ, compared to 0.0% for the Eurozone. For the full year 2023, Italy’s growth was 0.7%, outperforming the Eurozone’s 0.5%.

Singapore’s economic openness creates both challenges and strengths. The external sector is an unavoidable source of risk, the high cost of living is a concern and an ageing population. But, set against this, Singapore has a number of important strengths – a globally-connected economy, business-friendly environment, political system and benefits from its role in ASEAN.