Weekly Investment Outlook: June 5, 2023 – Higher for longer

Deutsche Bank’s Chief Investment Office have just completed their quarterly strategy meeting, and this week’s podcast with Dirk Steffen, Global Chief Investment Strategist, is dedicated to the various thematic outcomes of that call.  

“Higher for Longer” is one of these, as Dirk and the team predict rates in the U.S. and Europe will remain restrictive for some time, given persistent levels of inflation and a string of other strong economic indicators, including last Friday’s jobs report in the U.S., which saw the economy there add 339,000 jobs in May, defying expectations of a slowdown.  

Tune in to hear how Dirk thinks markets will react in the week ahead, and where he sees opportunities for investors in the medium term.

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Weekly Investment Outlook: May 29, 2023 – Dancing on the ceiling

In this week’s CIO Weekly Investment Outlook podcast, the Private Bank’s Global Chief Investment Officer, Christian Nolting looks closely at the ongoing U.S. debt ceiling negotiations, as stock markets rallied last week around continued optimism in the technology sector, as chipmaker earnings continue to rise given strong demand in the sector.

Tune in as Christian talks through these global mega trends and looks ahead to the key data points investors should carefully consider in the week ahead.

Weekly Investment Outlook: May 22, 2023 – Onwards and upwards

Markets in Europe and in Asia continued to rise last week, with the DAX reaching an all-time high while Wall Street gained ground also following an announcement that policymakers in Washington were making progress on a bill to raise the U.S. debt ceiling as early as this week.

In our latest CIO Weekly Investment Outlook podcast, tune in as Dirk Steffen, Global Chief Investment Strategist of the Private Bank, looks into some of the reasons behind this positive run whilst giving us a sneak peek into some of those additional areas of opportunity that he and his colleagues in the Chief Investment Office see in the months ahead as they prepare to issue the next CIO quarterly insights.

Weekly Investment Outlook: May 15, 2023 – Sticking to the data

In this week’s CIO Weekly Investment Outlook podcast, our APAC Chief Investment Officer Stefanie Holtze-Jen is choosing to focus on data, rather than sentiment, when looking across markets and asset classes.  

Discussing the recent May Day holiday in China, Stefanie said China saw about 274 million people travelling, and domestic tourism revenue jumped to 101 percent of pre-pandemic levels.

“It’s data like this that supports our constructive medium term view on China,” she said.

In addition to important Asia trade data expected this week, our APAC CIO will be closely monitoring rhetoric around the G7 summit in Japan, taking place at the end of the week.

Weekly Investment Outlook: May 8, 2023 – The hawkish pause

In this week’s CIO Weekly Investment Outlook podcast, the Private Bank’s Chief Investment Officer in EMEA, Zeynep Ozturk looks back at last week’s decisions from both the U.S. Federal Reserve and European Central Bank to raise interest rates by 25 basis points.

While rates in the U.S. may have peaked (for now), Zeynep notes that in Europe there may well be more rate rises on the horizon, with Madame Lagarde flagging at least two more moves in the pipeline before rates in Europe reach their own peak.   

Tune in as Zeynep also looks at the ongoing challenges for regional banks in the U.S., describing the divergence between these and a positive set of results from the major European banks. Can the sector stabilise as the impact of rate rises on many regional U.S. lenders’ business models becomes apparent? And is a recession really on the horizon?

Weekly Investment Outlook: May 1, 2023 – A week for the central bankers

In this week’s CIO Weekly Investment Outlook podcast, the Private Bank’s Global Chief Investment Officer, Christian Nolting, looks ahead to what could be an historic week for central banks.

The U.S. Federal Reserve meets on Wednesday and their decision on interest rates may well set the tone for other central banks around the world in the ongoing fight against inflation, The next day, the European Central Bank will make a decision on interest rates for the Eurozone, with many commentators expecting continued rate hikes following stronger CPI data from France, Italy and Spain last week.  Tune in to hear Christian lay out his thoughts on what the markets can expect, while commenting on the ongoing first quarter earnings season and U.S. debt ceiling discussions. 

Weekly Investment Outlook: April 24, 2023 –  Relative resilience

In this week’s podcast, the Private Bank’s Chief Investment Officer in the Americas, Deepak Puri, shares his take on the latest first-quarter earnings releases, summarising them as “reasonably strong”. He also provides an update on the latest debt ceiling discussions in the US, a topic that will keep the market "on its toes".

The next few weeks will be eventful. Deepak says. As well as the next round of central bank meetings taking place, various different macro data releases are in the pipeline: from first-quarter GDP readings and the core PCE (Personal Consumptions Expenditures) number – a key data point for the Fed – to inflation data releases from Europe. 

Tune in to hear Deepak’s analysis on what he calls “relatively resilient markets for the time being”. 

Weekly Investment Outlook: April 17, 2023 – The rally continues

In this week’s CIO Weekly Investment Outlook podcast, the Private Bank’s Chief Investment Officer in EMEA, Zeynep Ozturk takes a look at the ongoing global equities rally following last week’s cooler than expected inflation data out of the U.S.

Investors and traders are hoping that the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank could tap the brakes on their respective tightening cycles, whilst looking ahead to first quarter earnings for further signs that contractionary fiscal and monetary policy actions have been effective.  

Tune in as Zeynep makes the case for “cautious optimism” in the weeks ahead, whilst encouraging investors to pay careful attention to those factors that may influence markets in a negative way, especially the upcoming ISM data and consumer confidence indicators which have trended to the downside in recent weeks. 

Weekly Investment Outlook: April 10, 2023 – Caution and diligence

Oil, equities, and bonds are in focus in this week’s CIO Weekly Investment Outlook podcast with EMEA Chief Investment Officer Zeynep Ozturk-Unlu who speaks with IPB’s Deputy Head of Communications, Sarah Stabler.

Going into the Easter holidays, Zeynep discusses last week’s US PMI data which saw bond market moves, while the UK surprised on the upside with resilience and equity market outperformance.    

“We continue to see pockets of market resilience, but urge investors to use caution and diligence and keep diversification top of mind,” Zeynep said.

This week will see EU investor confidence and retail sales data released, which Zeynep expects on the downside given weak sentiment.

Weekly Investment Outlook: April 3, 2023 – The inflation equation

In our latest CIO Weekly Investment Outlook podcast, Dirk Steffen, Global Chief Investment Strategist of the Private Bank, looks closely at the Eurozone inflation numbers out on Friday. Inflation fell more steeply than expected, to its lowest level for a year, after a decline in energy costs. But is this really the case for consumer prices across the board? And what does it mean for future rate hike expectations from the ECB?

Stock markets ticked higher last week following the lower-than-expected inflation data and in fact ended March in positive territory despite significant volatility throughout the month. Meanwhile in Asia, markets gained off the back of activity in China’s non-manufacturing sectors growing at their fastest rate in more than a decade, as business confidence there continues to improve. Tune in to hear how Dirk thinks these factors and more will influence global markets in the weeks and months ahead.

Weekly Investment Outlook: March 27, 2023 – Sticky inflation

In this week’s CIO Weekly Investment Outlook podcast, the Private Bank’s Chief Investment Officer in the Americas, Deepak Puri, reflects on what was another eventful week for global markets. Deepak elaborates on the latest decisions by central banks and their ongoing fight against inflation.

Deepak also highlights the key take-aways of the newly published CIO Insights report "Inflation remains sticky" and how this view translates into the different asset classes. Looking ahead, remaining cautious and analysing the numbers of upcoming data releases will be key.

Weekly Investment Outlook: March 20, 2023 – Staying the course

In this week’s CIO Weekly Investment Outlook podcast, the Private Bank’s Global Chief Investment Officer, Christian Nolting looks back at a volatile week for global markets.

U.S. inflation data, European Central Bank monetary policy and concerns around various idiosyncratic risks in the banking sector have dominated the headlines and in turn led to some turbulent market activity. Tune in as Christian outlines the key questions he’s received from investors over the past week, giving his take on why now more than ever it’s so important to “stay the course” with a long-term, diversified portfolio investment strategy. 

Weekly Investment Outlook: March 13, 2023 – A turbulent landing?

In our latest CIO Weekly Investment Outlook podcast, Dirk Steffen, Global Chief Investment Strategist of the Private Bank, looks back at a volatile week in the markets, particularly on Thursday and Friday. Late in the week, stock markets suffered losses globally as guidance by the U.S. Federal Reserve turned out to be relatively hawkish.

All eyes will now be on U.S. inflation data, due this week, to see whether the strength of the U.S. economy remains robust, and whether the “higher for longer” mantra really will play out. Whatever the outcome, Dirk and his colleagues in the CIO Office expect turbulent trading conditions to continue for the foreseeable future, but remain constructive on select pockets of opportunity, now including the fixed income space.