In this week’s CIO Weekly Investment Outlook podcast, the Private Bank’s Chief Investment Strategist and CIO for EMEA, Dirk Steffen, looks back at what has been a “monster month” in terms of performance for balanced portfolios and bonds.
Commenting on the latest European CPI data, Dirk says central banks are still “in data dependency mode” before switching gears on interest rates. Turning to APAC, Dirk argues that while the data landscape is very mixed, the valuation is attractive and earnings growth is expected to be good – what is needed is a trigger to unlock the value in these markets.
Looking ahead, important data releases are due this week, so no slowing down yet.
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Weekly Investment Outlook: November 27, 2023 – No time for euphoria
In this week’s CIO Weekly Investment Outlook podcast, Christian Nolting, Global Chief Investment Officer, shares his view on the equity rally, which “is appreciated”, but stresses that we haven’t overcome a lot of inflationary pressures yet and should therefore be wary of too much euphoria.
He also discusses upcoming consumer data, highlights developments on the fiscal side as well as yield movements, and shares his take on oil prices “which are still an important driver for markets”. Although Christmas is coming closer, Christian doesn’t see activity slowing down just yet as “there will be volatile times still ahead”.
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Weekly Investment Outlook: November 20, 2023 – Are we at a turning point?
Deepak Puri, the Private Bank’s Chief Investment Officer in the Americas, reflects on recent economic data pointing to a disinflationary trend and comments on related market reactions. He also shares his key takeaways for investors from the Private Bank's latest quarterly CIO day.
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Weekly Investment Outlook: November 13, 2023 – It's still all about inflation
In this week’s CIO Weekly Investment Outlook podcast, Dirk Steffen, Chief Investment Strategist and CIO for EMEA, provides his take on the Q3 earnings season, stressing that "in the U.S. we had a reasonable beat on earnings and a small one on revenues" in comparison to Europe where the picture is a bit more mixed.
In addition, he emphasises that the economic environment is not favorable for oil in the short term, but there is room for improving demand in 2024 and potentially higher prices. Overall, Dirk says that the key topic is still inflation; however, that may well change at some point in 2024.
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Weekly Investment Outlook: November 6, 2023 – Policy doves return
In this week’s CIO Weekly Investment Outlook podcast, the Private Bank’s Chief Investment Officer in APAC, Stefanie Holtze-Jen, discusses three significant central bank decisions; from the Bank of Japan, the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England.
Stefanie says the Bank of Japan is walking a thin line as it tries to increase policy flexibility, and that Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has turned dovish but left the door open.
In Asia Pacific, Stefanie will be closely watching China’s trade, credit and inflation data this week for what it signals about the country’s recovery.
And in Australia, the Reserve Bank is widely expected to hike rates by 25 basis points on the eve of the country’s festive Melbourne Cup, the 3.2km horse race that famously ‘stops the nation’.
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Weekly Investment Outlook: October 30, 2023 – A busy week on the macro side
In this week’s CIO Weekly Investment Outlook podcast, the Private Bank’s Global Chief Investment Officer, Christian Nolting reflects on what has been a busy week for the corporate sector.
On the interest rate side, Christian comments on the latest meeting of the ECB and looks ahead to the US, where the FOMC meeting will take place later this week. Christian highlights the importance of the upcoming non-farm payrolls and consumer confidence data releases, which should hint at the underlying status of the US economy. Tune in and listen to our latest podcast.
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Weekly Investment Outlook: October 24, 2023 – Macro vs. micro
In this week’s CIO Weekly Investment Outlook podcast, the Private Bank’s Chief Investment Officer for Europe, Middle East and Africa, Dr. Dirk Steffen, discusses how macro fundamentals are head-to-head with micro developments in steering markets.
For bonds, Dirk argues that technicals (short term supply/demand imbalances) are driving current bond markets, rather than macro fundamentals.
With earnings season in full swing in the U.S. and Europe, Dirk expects the corporate sector to drive the news this week, while central bank watchers weigh up data points.
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Weekly Investment Outlook: October 16, 2023 – The drivers of the rates and stock market
In this week’s CIO Weekly – Investment Outlook podcast, we take a look at the market movers in the US. The Private Bank’s Chief Investment Officer for the Americas, Deepak Puri, discusses recent labour market and consumer price index data which revealed a steep increase in rent inflation month over month. He adds that "there is a lot of activity before the November 1st Fed meeting" and explains what these data points means for the upcoming Fed decision.
In addition, he elaborates on what he will focus on for third quarter earnings season, highlighting that it's going to be "interesting to see if there will be an upside surprise in terms of EPS growth on aggregate".
Listen in to learn what these considerations mean from a portfolio construction perspective.
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Weekly Investment Outlook: October 9, 2023 – Higher for longer?
In this week’s CIO Weekly Investment Outlook podcast, the Private Bank’s Global Chief Investment Strategist and Chief Investment Officer for EMEA, Dirk Steffen, discusses the latest U.S. job data release and the first market reactions.
Numbers came in much higher than expected, which speaks for the strength of the underlying labour market. At the same time, the potential for further rate hikes by the Fed keeps financial markets busy, leading to volatility both on the bond and equity side. Commenting on the latest oil prices moves, Dirk expects the price for oil to remain elevated on the back of strong supply and demand distortions.
For the week ahead, all eyes will be on the topic of inflation in the US, as CPI data is set to be released. Moreover, earnings seasons will be kicking off in earnest with the major U.S. banks announcing their results. Tune in to listen to our latest insights.
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Weekly Investment Outlook: October 2, 2023 – Surprising Q4 kickoff
In this week’s CIO Weekly Investment Outlook podcast, the Private Bank’s Chief Investment Officer in APAC, Stefanie Holtze-Jen speaks to Head of Emerging Markets Communications, Sarah Stabler about the rising risks of a U.S. government shutdown from October 1. Stefanie discusses possible implications for around 750,000 U.S. government workers facing furlough, and what it may mean for October data availability.
In Asia Pacific, there are upcoming meetings with the Reserve Bank of Australia, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, and the Reserve Bank of India. Stefanie also discusses the Japanese Yen and expectations for China, as the Golden Week kicks off for the mid-Autumn festival.
For investors, our CIO team published their Q4 outlook last week.
Tune in and listen to Stefanie’s key thoughts for the week ahead.
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Weekly Investment Outlook: September 25, 2023 – Hitting the pause button
In this week’s CIO Weekly Investment Outlook podcast, the Private Bank’s Chief Investment Officer for EMEA, Zeynep Ozturk, discusses recent central bank decisions, explaining that recent data from the UK indicated a downward trend for both headline and core inflation, which was a positive surprise.
Furthermore, Zeynep elaborated on the Fed decision to pause after significant hikes for the past 18 months and what this means for any other potential actions.
Overall, with the concerns of growth broadly, higher inflation and elevated rates, Zeynep stresses the relevance of building more income-generating assets and being selective – not only from a sector but also from a regions point of view.
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Weekly Investment Outlook: September 18, 2023 – A busy week for central banks
In this week’s CIO Weekly Investment Outlook podcast, the Private Bank’s Chief Investment Officer in the Americas, Deepak Puri comments on the latest interest rate hike from the ECB, which he expects to be the last one for now, unless changes in underlying economic data would require another hike to bring inflation down.
Looking at the upcoming FOMC meeting, Deepak reflects on the latest macro data releases including CPI, PPI and retail sales and argues that the Fed will have a “relatively easier” decision as inflation indicators go in the right direction. He expects the Fed to pause on further interest rate increases and underlines the importance of the statements accompanying the policy decision. Tune in and learn what is set to be a busy week for central banks around the world.
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Weekly Investment Outlook: September 11, 2023 – Another rate hike knocking on the door?
In this week’s episode, the Private Bank’s Global Chief Investment Officer, Christian Nolting, elaborates on his latest view on inflation. He expects headline inflation to come down over the next months, and core inflation to remain elevated for longer.
In this context, Christian points out the crucial importance of inflation data for this week’s ECB meeting. He also provides his take on China and shares his view on the latest developments for the US dollar and the Euro. Tune in and get the latest comments on market developments and learn what’s key for the week ahead.
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Weekly Investment Outlook: September 4, 2023 – Back to school, stay invested
Back to school from a busy summer. In this week’s CIO Weekly - Investment Outlook podcast, the Private Bank’s Chief Investment Strategist, Dirk Steffen, discusses recent U.S. and Eurozone inflation data and elaborates why both the Fed and the ECB are faced with difficult decisions.
Moreover, Dirk explains why despite uncertainties and high risks equities are still "the place to be" and elaborates on recent measures taken by China stressing that "it looks like Chinese business confidence is bottoming out". He recommends to stay invested but be disciplined and focused on risk management as trading volumes will pick up again.
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