In this week’s CIO Weekly Investment Outlook podcast, the Private Bank’s Chief Investment Officer in the Americas, Deepak Puri comments on the latest interest rate hike from the ECB, which he expects to be the last one for now, unless changes in underlying economic data would require another hike to bring inflation down.
Looking at the upcoming FOMC meeting, Deepak reflects on the latest macro data releases including CPI, PPI and retail sales and argues that the Fed will have a “relatively easier” decision as inflation indicators go in the right direction. He expects the Fed to pause on further interest rate increases and underlines the importance of the statements accompanying the policy decision. Tune in and learn what is set to be a busy week for central banks around the world.
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Weekly Investment Outlook: September 11, 2023 – Another rate hike knocking on the door?
In this week’s episode, the Private Bank’s Global Chief Investment Officer, Christian Nolting, elaborates on his latest view on inflation. He expects headline inflation to come down over the next months, and core inflation to remain elevated for longer.
In this context, Christian points out the crucial importance of inflation data for this week’s ECB meeting. He also provides his take on China and shares his view on the latest developments for the US dollar and the Euro. Tune in and get the latest comments on market developments and learn what’s key for the week ahead.
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Weekly Investment Outlook: September 4, 2023 – Back to school, stay invested
Back to school from a busy summer. In this week’s CIO Weekly - Investment Outlook podcast, the Private Bank’s Chief Investment Strategist, Dirk Steffen, discusses recent U.S. and Eurozone inflation data and elaborates why both the Fed and the ECB are faced with difficult decisions.
Moreover, Dirk explains why despite uncertainties and high risks equities are still "the place to be" and elaborates on recent measures taken by China stressing that "it looks like Chinese business confidence is bottoming out". He recommends to stay invested but be disciplined and focused on risk management as trading volumes will pick up again.
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Weekly Investment Outlook: August 28, 2023 – BRICS, China, and the Moon
In this week’s CIO Weekly Investment Outlook podcast, the Private Bank’s Chief Investment Officer in APAC, Stefanie Holtze-Jen, discusses key developments for emerging markets from the BRICS meeting, including India landing on the Moon.
Stefanie says enlargement of the BRICS economic community means it now represents 36 percent of global GDP in purchasing parity, and almost 50 percent of the world’s population, and reflects what CIO views as a new multi-polar world.
For investors, CIO has turned neutral on China in the short term. Tune in and listen to Stefanie’s key thoughts for the week ahead.
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Weekly Investment Outlook: August 21, 2023 – Put your eggs in different baskets
In this week’s CIO Weekly Investment Outlook podcast, the Private Bank’s Chief Investment Officer in EMEA, Zeynep Ozturk, discusses the latest releases of inflation data from the UK and the Eurozone.
Zeynep argues that headline inflation came down, however, prices for food and oil remain elevated, putting further pressure on central banks to control inflation.
Turning to the US, Zeynep comments on the reaction of the bond market to the latest FOMC meeting minutes and highlights the importance of the upcoming meeting in Jackson Hole for market watchers.
Last but certainly not least, Zeynep elaborates on the latest developments in China.
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Weekly Investment Outlook: August 14, 2023 – Don't chase the rally
In this week’s CIO Weekly Investment Outlook podcast, the Private Bank’s Chief Investment Officer in the Americas, Deepak Puri, discusses the recent Moody's downgrade of US banks, elaborates on the latest CPI data and provides his takeaways for Q2 earnings season, emphasising that "markets have not rewarded companies with a positive earnings surprise".
Furthermore, he expresses concern that the soft landing scenario is becoming the base case for market psychology, stressing that "a soft landing is not a guarantee" and "any deviation from that soft landing would make the market recalibrate its assessment of various asset classes".
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Weekly Investment Outlook: August 7, 2023 – No summer lull
Even in the August summer break, this week’s CIO Weekly Investment Outlook podcast is with the Private Bank’s Global Chief Investment Strategist, Dirk Steffen, who discusses key macro developments with central banks, including the Bank of Japan’s yield curve control mechanism and what it means for global bond markets.
Diving into consumer sentiment and corporate earnings, Dirk says earnings came in strong both in Europe and the U.S., where companies have been quite good at managing and adjusting to the macro environment.
Tune in as Dirk takes us through key considerations for asset classes in the week ahead.
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Weekly Investment Outlook: July 31, 2023 – An air of caution
In this week’s CIO Weekly Investment Outlook podcast, the Private Bank’s Global Chief Investment Officer, Christian Nolting looks back at a busy week for central bankers who continued with another round of highly anticipated interest rate hikes despite cooling inflation. Both the U.S. Federal Reserve and ECB have now however switched to a more cautious posture about further moves in interest rates, signalling that a year-long round of monetary tightening could be coming to an end.
Tune in as Christian also looks at an important round of technology company earnings due for the second quarter, whilst laying out the key themes of last week’s CIO Outlook for the second half of the year.
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Weekly Investment Outlook: July 24, 2023 – One and done?
In this week’s CIO Weekly Investment Outlook podcast, the Private Bank’s Chief Investment Officer in Asia Pacific, Stefanie Holtze-Jen, discusses expectations surrounding this week’s Federal Reserve meeting – will it be one more, and done?
She also looks at Spain’s upcoming elections and discusses signals coming from the ECB. In Asia, Stefanie discusses the heated debate about possible changes to the Bank of Japan’s yield curve control, as well as expectations for Indonesia’s RBI, and moderating inflation data in Singapore, Malaysia and Australia.
Tune in as Stefanie takes us around major regions for the key economic events in the week ahead, and what market watchers are anticipating before the August summer break.
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Weekly Investment Outlook: July 17, 2023 – Higher interest rates offer earnings boost
In this week’s CIO Weekly Investment Outlook podcast, the Private Bank’s Chief Investment Officer in EMEA, Zeynep Ozturk looks back at first round earnings from some of the biggest U.S. financial firms, where higher interest rates boosted profits, which in turn saw bank stocks in the S&P 500 continue to gain ground on Friday morning. The U.S. dollar steadied on Friday following a week which saw an index tracking the currency slump 2.5 percent against a basket of six peers.
Tune in as Zeynep analyses the implications of the fall of “King Dollar” for global markets, whilst also commenting on what potential Chinese stimulus measures could mean for some of the country’s closest trading partners.
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Weekly Investment Outlook: July 10, 2023 – No summer surprises: Fed to stay on course
In this week’s CIO Weekly Investment Outlook podcast, the Private Bank’s Chief Investment Officer in the Americas, Deepak Puri, puts the latest job report into perspective stressing that "it's not the kind of payroll report that will derail the Fed from its stated course of action" and elaborates on what can be expected from the upcoming Consumer Price Index reading.
Moreover, he talks about the kick-off of the second quarter earnings season starting with banks and reveals the three aspects he will closely monitor.
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Weekly Investment Outlook: July 3, 2023 – S&P on the up!
In this week’s CIO Weekly Investment Outlook podcast, the Private Bank’s Global Chief Investment Officer, Christian Nolting, looks back at the strong half-year performance for the S&P 500.
The U.S. index is up by 5.18 percent for the month of June and by 14.5 percent for the half year, its best performance since 2018. Tune in as Christian analyses whether this strong run can continue, while looking ahead to key interest rate decisions and company earnings due for the second quarter.
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Weekly Investment Outlook: June 26, 2023 – Rates on the rise
In this week’s CIO Weekly Investment Outlook podcast, the Private Bank’s Chief Investment Officer in EMEA, Zeynep Ozturk, elaborates on why the Bank of England's decision was the right move and why thoughts around higher rates for longer is the core theme of this year.
In addition, she explains why the senior-level meetings between Chinese officials and representatives from the US as well as Germany sends a positive signal.
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