CIO Perspectives Q2 2024 | Wealth Management | Deutsche Bank

PERSPECTIVES: Economic and asset class outlook

Published in March 2024, this edition of PERSPECTIVES provides a quarterly update of our economic and asset class views.

In the first issue of our new quarterly publication "PERSPECTIVES", we outline our forecasts for the second quarter of 2024 on the macroeconomic front, as well as for equities, fixed income, commodities and foreign exchange.

 

Macroeconomics: What kind of landing?

  • Economic growth: Strong in the U.S., subdued in Europe and Japan.
  • Overall easing inflation with some stickiness in the process.
  • Expect Fed and ECB to cut interest rates in June, Japan to end NIRP.

 

Fixed Income: Carry on!

  • “Higher for longer” theme intact as longer-end yields remain elevated.
  • Yield curve steepening should push down shorter end yields.
  • Investment Grade markets are expected to remain well bid.

 

Equities: Improving fundamentals

  • We lift our equity targets but upside from here is modest.
  • Still, certain regions and sectors offer plenty of attractive investment opportunities.
  • Earnings growth set to become the main driver of stocks again.

 

Commodities: Price risks are to the upside

  • Oil supply to track demand growth and keep oil prices around current levels.
  • Central bank buying along with pricing of rate cuts to help gold higher.
  • Green infrastructure build-up providing green shoots for industrial metals.

 

Currencies: In equilibrium

  • Synchronised cutting cycles of DM central banks to limit FX volatility.
  • Little impact of BoJ tightening on JPY as rate differentials to other DMs remain wide. 
  • Low inflation environment in China and easing PBoC to weigh on CNY. 

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        Our full investment magazine "PERSPECTIVES: Economic and asset class outlook" is available to download. Please refer to the Important Notes at the end of the report for disclosures and risk warnings.

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        In Europe, Middle East and Africa as well as in Asia Pacific this material is considered marketing material, but this is not the case in the U.S. No assurance can be given that any forecast or target can be achieved. Forecasts are based on assumptions, estimates, opinions and hypothetical models which may prove to be incorrect. Past performance is not indicative of future returns. Performance refers to a nominal value based on price gains/losses and does not take into account inflation. Inflation will have a negative impact on the purchasing power of this nominal monetary value. Depending on the current level of inflation, this may lead to a real loss in value, even if the nominal performance of the investment is positive. Investments come with risk. The value of an investment can fall as well as rise and you might not get back the amount originally invested at any point in time. Your capital may be at risk. Readers should refer to disclosures and risk warnings at the end of this document. This document was produced in March 2024.

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