Key takeaways:

  • As unanimously expected in advance, the European Central Bank (ECB) left key interest rates unchanged at its meeting today.
  • The ECB once again emphasised the data dependency of its monetary policy – in particular that the development of wages in the first quarter, inflation expectations and the inflation rate itself would determine the interest rate path.
  • During the press conference, ECB President Lagarde pointed out that the downward trend in core inflation is intact. A turnaround in interest rates in the second quarter seems likely.

 

1. What happened?

As the ECB will not publish new projections regarding the development of the economy and inflation in the Eurozone until its next meeting on March 7, no change in monetary policy was expected from the outset for today's meeting.

 

In addition, ECB President Lagarde had already stated last week in an interview at the World Economic Forum in Davos that the ECB first wanted to wait for data on the development of wages and salaries. She also said there that the ECB would not receive data from this year's wage agreements until "late spring", which should enable it to form a valid idea of where household incomes and therefore inflation were heading. However, it is likely that the ECB will cut interest rates "in the summer".

 

After an unexpectedly significant drop in the inflation rate to 2.4% in November 2023, it rose again slightly in December to 2.9%. The development of the core inflation rate, which fell from 3.6% in the previous month to 3.4% in December, is likely to be of greater relevance for the ECB's monetary policy decisions in the medium term.

 

According to a statement, the Governing Council of the ECB estimates that the Eurozone economy is likely to have stagnated in the fourth quarter and that growth risks are predominantly to the downside. However, according to Lagarde, the Council does not yet consider discussions about interest rate cuts to be appropriate. "The consensus around the table was that it would be premature to discuss interest rate cuts," she said at the press conference.

 

When repeatedly asked during the press conference whether she could explicitly rule out interest rate cuts before the June meeting, Ms Lagarde did not provide direct answers, which contributed to the tone of her press conference being seen as "dovish" on the financial markets.

 

2. How did markets react?

On the swap markets, the potential for interest rate cuts by the ECB was priced somewhat higher following Lagarde's press conference. A first interest rate cut in April was priced with a probability of just under 50% in the run-up to the press conference, but now with more than 70% following the press conference. Overnight index swaps are now pricing in interest rate cuts totalling more than 144 basis points by the end of the year, compared with 128 bps before the meeting. Yields on two-year government bonds from Germany, France, Italy and Spain each fell by around 10 bps. The EUR depreciated by around 0.5% against the USD, while the Eurostoxx 50 gained 0.5%.

 

3. What does it mean for investors?

In principle, the ECB's core message has not changed significantly compared to the December meeting. According to Christine Lagarde, interest rate cuts were not discussed today either; the Governing Council is waiting for more information on the development of wages and salaries and, of course, further data on the development of inflation and inflation expectations.

 

The ECB does see downside risks for economic development in the Eurozone – and the concerns are unlikely to have diminished as a result of this morning's reported drop in the German Ifo index to its lowest level since May 2020. However, the unemployment rate in the Eurozone has fallen to its lowest level since the introduction of the euro, which could put upward pressure on inflation rates, as could rising freight rates in the wake of the situation in the Red Sea. In addition, some inflation-dampening base effects will diminish over the course of the year.

 

The fact that Ms Lagarde did not explicitly repeat that she expects interest rate cuts "in the summer" and also did not rule out a first rate cut in April leaves all options open for the ECB if much darker clouds should gather over the economic skies of the Eurozone or if the inflation rate were to fall unexpectedly quickly - neither of which is our base scenario, however.

 

Monetary policy is likely to remain at the current level and therefore restrictive in the coming months. As an initial interest rate cut by the ECB in April has now been priced in on the futures markets with a high degree of probability and yields have therefore already fallen today, further downside potential appears low in the short term. The equity markets could continue to receive a tailwind from the robust economic data from the U.S. and the planned stimulus in China. One of the relevant factors for the EUR/USD exchange rate is whether the ECB cuts interest rates significantly before or after the US Federal Reserve. If both central banks do not cut rates until June, this would be neutral for the exchange rate.

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  • Glossary

    EUR is the currency code for the euro.

     

    The Eurostoxx 50 is a share index comprising 50 large listed companies in the eurozone.

     

    The eurozone comprises the 20 EU countries in which the euro is legal tender: Austria, Belgium, Croatia, Cyprus, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, the Netherlands, Portugal, Slovakia, Slovenia and Spain.

     

    The European Central Bank (ECB) is an institution of the European Union. It is the common monetary authority of the member states of the European Monetary Union, founded in 1998, and forms the European System of Central Banks (ESCB) together with the national central banks (NCBs) of the EU member states.

     

    Monetary policy is the term used to summarise all economic policy measures taken by a central bank to achieve its objectives. Inflation describes a sustained increase in an average price.

     

    Core inflation is an economic concept for measuring inflation that does not take into account the price changes of certain goods. The core inflation rate excludes prices for food and the energy sector from the calculation, as these are subject to greater fluctuations, the causes of which are not to be found within the economy under consideration.

     

    The key interest rate is the interest rate unilaterally set by a central bank as part of its monetary policy, at which it concludes transactions with its affiliated credit institutions.

     

    The marginal lending facility is the interest rate at which banks can borrow money from the ECB until the next business day. Transmission means the effect of central bank policy on the economy.

     

    USD is the currency code for the U.S. Dollar. 

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