CIO Perspectives Q2 2024 | Wealth Management | Deutsche Bank

PERSPECTIVES: Q1 2024 economic and asset class outlook

Published in March 2024, this edition of PERSPECTIVES provides a quarterly update of our economic and asset class views.

In the first issue of our new quarterly publication "PERSPECTIVES", we outline our forecasts for the second quarter of 2024 on the macroeconomic front, as well as for equities, fixed income, commodities and foreign exchange.

 

Macroeconomics: What kind of landing?

  • Economic growth: Strong in the U.S., subdued in Europe and Japan.
  • Overall easing inflation with some stickiness in the process.
  • Expect Fed and ECB to cut interest rates in June, Japan to end NIRP.

 

Fixed Income: Carry on!

  • “Higher for longer” theme intact as longer-end yields remain elevated.
  • Yield curve steepening should push down shorter end yields.
  • Investment Grade markets are expected to remain well bid.

 

Equities: Improving fundamentals

  • We lift our equity targets but upside from here is modest.
  • Still, certain regions and sectors offer plenty of attractive investment opportunities.
  • Earnings growth set to become the main driver of stocks again.

 

Commodities: Price risks are to the upside

  • Oil supply to track demand growth and keep oil prices around current levels.
  • Central bank buying along with pricing of rate cuts to help gold higher.
  • Green infrastructure build-up providing green shoots for industrial metals.

 

Currencies: In equilibrium

  • Synchronised cutting cycles of DM central banks to limit FX volatility.
  • Little impact of BoJ tightening on JPY as rate differentials to other DMs remain wide. 
  • Low inflation environment in China and easing PBoC to weigh on CNY. 

Download our PERSPECTIVES quarterly update

Our full investment magazine "PERSPECTIVES: Economic and asset class outlook" is available to download. Please refer to the Important Notes at the end of the report for disclosures and risk warnings.

PDF

Language:

Related CIO reports

CIO Insights Annual Outlook 2025 horizontal illustration, showing the ocean with a catamaran on the left and a city skyline on the right, with a flying drone at the top right corner

CIO Annual Outlook

Annual outlook 2025: Deeply invested in growth

In PERSPECTIVES, the Deutsche Bank investment magazine, we review the landscape for the year ahead to identify the broader issues affecting investors over both short- and long-term horizons.

Dec 10, 2024

Cover of the PERSPECTIVES report, showing an image of Brooklyn Bridge | Wealth Management

CIO Insights quarterly report

CIO PERSPECTIVES: Economic and asset class outlook Q4 2024

This is the latest edition of our PERSPECTIVES: Economic and asset class outlook. It provides a summary update of our economic and asset class views following our quarterly CIO Day.

Nov 21, 2024

See more

CIO latest podcast

CIO week upfront podcast

CIO Podcast

Weekly Investment Outlook: December 9 – Jobs data, Fed policy, and the outlook for stocks

A somewhat mixed U.S. jobs report has boosted expectations for an interest-rate cut at the Federal Reserve’s last policy meeting of the year, says Deepak Puri, the Private Bank’s Chief Investment Officer for the Americas. “Given the fact that the unemployment rate went up, the Fed can easily rationalise another rate cut”, Deepak says.

Dec 02, 2024

See more

In Europe, Middle East and Africa as well as in Asia Pacific this material is considered marketing material, but this is not the case in the U.S.

The value of an investment can fall as well as rise and you might not get back the amount originally invested at any point in time. Your capital may be at risk.

No assurance can be given that any forecast or target can be achieved. Forecasts are based on assumptions, estimates, opinions and hypothetical models which may prove to be incorrect. Past performance is not indicative of future returns. Performance refers to a nominal value based on price gains/losses and does not take into account inflation. Inflation will have a negative impact on the purchasing power of this nominal monetary value. Depending on the current level of inflation, this may lead to a real loss in value, even if the nominal performance of the investment is positive.

This web page is not an offer to buy a security or enter into any transaction. The products, services, information and/or materials contained within these web pages may not be available for residents of certain jurisdictions. Please consider the sales restrictions relating to the products or services in question for further information. Deutsche Bank does not give tax or legal advice; prospective investors should seek advice from their own tax advisers and/or lawyers before entering into any investment.

Change of name: As part of Deutsche Bank’s Private Bank, the former International Private Bank also adopted this title on July 20, 2023.