Key takeaways:

  • Recent macro data in Asia are pointing to a slowdown in the region’s trade growth momentum. China’s manufacturing sector recovery also slowed in April.
  • Weak macro data appears to have dragged down market sentiment on Chinese equities. The Hang Seng Index is down -1.8% month-to-date, with the Shanghai Composite falling by -0.7%.
  • We think near-term headwind risks include “higher-for-longer” interest rates, a Eurozone demand pivot and a U.S. recession risks. All would affect Asia/China equities.   

 

1. What happened?

 

Key major Asian trading economies have reported weak macro data for April. South Korea reported double-digit declines in several trade data components. Exports declined by -14.2% YoY in April after March’s -13.6% fall – this was more than the consensus forecast of -13.5%. Imports slipped further in April, coming in at -13.3% YoY vs. -6.4% in March, compared to a consensus prediction of -10.6%. Taiwan also reported double-digit declines in April trade data with exports down -13.3% YoY and imports at -20.2% YoY.

 

China also reported a relatively weak April data. Exports fell MoM and growth decelerated to 8.5% YoY from 14.8% in March. Imports slipped further in April, down by -7.9% after -1.4% in March. This was largely in line with the weaker-than-expected industrial production and retail sales data for April. Industrial production in April rose by 5.6% YoY compared to a consensus forecast of 9.8%. Retail sales growth for April came in at 18.4% YoY, below the expected 19.5% YoY. Weak industrial production data was particularly caused by the slowdown in infrastructure investment and property sector sales.

 

Trade data from India and Singapore have been in focus this week. India reported that exports had declined to USD34.7bn in April from March’s USD38.4bn (the expectation had been USD37.6bn). Imports slipped further in April, coming in at USD49.9bn from USD58.1bn in March. Meanwhile, Singapore’s non-oil exports declined -9.8% YoY in April.

 

Weaker demand from developed markets (DM) was already becoming a drag on Asian exporters. China’s exports to the U.S. and EU declined by -17% YoY and -7.2% YoY in Q1, respectively. This was after double-digit YoY declines in Q4 last year, providing a clear indication that external demand from DM has been slowing down since last year. Asia’s interregional trade has proved more resilient with China’s exports to Southeast Asia growing at a pace of above 10% year-to-date.

 

2. How did markets react?

 

Chinese equities have had lukewarm trading sessions this month on the back of weak macro data. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index has declined by -1.8% month to date, as of mid-day May 19, with China A-share’s Shanghai Composite Index was down -0.7% over the same period. With the worse-than-expected macro data, CNY has depreciated by -1.8% against USD month-to-date and USD/CNY broke the 7.0 mark to close at 7.04 as of mid-day May 19.

 

3. What does it mean for investors?

 

The value of exports from many major exporting countries such as China, South Korea and Taiwan seem to have weakened in recent months. This has been mainly caused by lower commodity prices (compared to last year) as well as the weak external demand, especially in the tech sectors. There are reasons to expect that such drags will continue with near-term headwinds including the possibility of higher-for-longer Fed fund rates and U.S. recession risk.

 

China’s domestic reopening-driven recovery decelerated visibly in April. Consumption recovery was uneven. Service sectors continued to rebound, especially the mobility-sensitive ones, including accommodation, dining and high-end spending. However, household-related consumer sectors continued to show weakness, including construction and decoration materials, furniture and so on. Having said that, we think risks are skewed to the upside for our forecasts, particularly if the rebound in private consumption is sharper or more sustained than we anticipate in H2.

 

In H2 this year, we expect more policy easing from China to support growth recovery. On the monetary policy front, we think the PBoC may implement more liquidity support measures, with possible Reserve Requirement Ratio cuts or even rate cuts. On the fiscal side, more supportive measures on infrastructure investment could be likely, especially on digital infrastructure. We think more business-friendly industrial policies are also likely in the light of the slow demand growth and unemployment pressures in the labour market.

 

Near-term headwind risks are likely to continue to affect market sentiment on Asia/China equities. However, we still expect any developed market (DM) recessions to be shallow and short-lived. We remain constructive on Asian/China equities in the medium term. We think the continued recovery in China’s economy, higher consumption demand and monetary policy easing could support corporate earnings and hence private sector sentiment in H2 this year. Better earnings growth could lead to a more resilient performance of Asia/China equities compared to the DM equities, in our view.

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  • Glossary

    ASEAN officially the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, is a political and economic union of ten member states in Southeast Asia.

     

    Chinese A-shares are shares of mainland companies, with limited accessibility to foreign investors.

     

    CNY is the currency code for the Chinese yuan.

     

    A developed market (DM) is a country that has characteristics of a developed market in terms of market efficiency, liquidity and other factors.

     

    Gross domestic product (GDP) is the monetary value of all the finished goods and services produced within a country's borders in a specific time period.

     

    Hang Seng Index (HSI) is a freefloat-adjusted market-capitalization-weighted stock-market index in Hong Kong.

     

    The MSCI China index includes various share types (H shares, B shares, red chips, ADRs etc.) listed on Shanghai or Shenzhen indices, with a focus on large and mid caps.

     

    The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) is the central bank of the People's Republic of China.

     

    Shanghai Composite Index also known as SSE Index is a stock market index of all stocks that are traded at the Shanghai Stock Exchange.

     

    USD is the currency code for the U.S. Dollar.

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