The ratings for investment-grade corporate bonds in the U.S. and the Eurozone have developed positively recently - despite difficult economic conditions. 

This CIO Special addresses the impact of the respective macroeconomic environment on the performance of corporate bonds while also highlighting the sectoral differences between U.S. and Eurozone corporate bonds. We also present our views on the contrasting outlooks for these bonds. 

  • Positive rating development for investment grade corporate bonds in the U.S. and Europe.
  • Interest rate spreads for bonds from the financial sector have not yet fully recovered from the turbulence in the spring and offer catch-up potential.
  • Interesting yields in the IG segment should compensate for the risk of higher volatility due to economic developments in the U.S. and the Eurozone.
  • High-yield bonds offer comparatively higher interest rates, but also harbour further increasing default risks.

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The CIO Special below is available to download. Please refer to the Important Information at the end of the memo for disclosures and risk warnings.

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In Europe, Middle East and Africa as well as in Asia Pacific this material is considered marketing material, but this is not the case in the U.S.

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No assurance can be given that any forecast or target can be achieved. Forecasts are based on assumptions, estimates, opinions and hypothetical models which may prove to be incorrect. Past performance is not indicative of future returns. Performance refers to a nominal value based on price gains/losses and does not take into account inflation. Inflation will have a negative impact on the purchasing power of this nominal monetary value. Depending on the current level of inflation, this may lead to a real loss in value, even if the nominal performance of the investment is positive.

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Change of name: As part of Deutsche Bank’s Private Bank, the former International Private Bank also adopted this title on July 20, 2023.

  • Glossary

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    Asia-Pacific (APAC) is the part of the world near the western Pacific Ocean. The Asia-Pacific region includes countries in East Asia, Southeast Asia, and Oceania that border the Pacific Ocean.

     

    The Bank of England (BoE) is the UK central bank.

     

    The Bank of Japan (BoJ) is the central bank of Japan.

     

    Basel IV is a proposed standard on capital reserves for banks.

     

    Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) is a component of Tier 1 capital that is primarily common stock held by a bank or other financial institution.

     

    Commercial real estate (CRE) are properties that are primarily used to conduct business and provide income to the property owner.

     

    The European Banking Authority (EBA) is an independent EU Authority regulatory agency across the European banking sector.

     

    Earnings per share (EPS) are calculated as a companies' net income minus dividends of preferred stock all divided by the total number of shares outstanding.

     

    The European Central Bank (ECB) is the central bank for the Eurozone.

     

    The Eurozone is formed of 20 European Union member states that have adopted the euro as their common currency and sole legal tender.

     

    EUR is the currency code for the euro, the currency of the Eurozone.

     

    The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) is an independent agency created by Congress to maintain stability and public confidence in the nation's financial system.

     

    A regulated clearing organization that deals with the confirmation, settlement, and delivery of fixed-income assets in the United States is known by the name Fixed Income Clearing Corporation (FICC).

     

    Banks above a cut-off score are identified as G-SIBs and are allocated to buckets that will be used to determine their higher loss absorbency requirement.

     

    In order to guarantee that financial institutions can continue to meet short-term obligations, the liquidity coverage ratio (LCR) refers to the percentage of highly liquid assets held by those institutions.

     

    NTM stands for next twelve months in the context of earnings and thus price/earnings ratios.

     

    The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) is the central bank of the People's Republic of China.

     

    Price/book (P/B) ratios measure a company's share price relative to its tangible assets.

     

    Price/earnings (P/E) ratios measure a company's current share price relative to its per-share earnings. In this context, LTM refers to last twelve months' earnings.

     

    Recovery and Resilience Plan (RRP or in Italian PNRR) is Italy's investment and reform plan for recovery from the Covid-19 emergency approved by the EU.

     

    Risk-weighted assets (RWA) is a term used to determine minimum capital bank need to keep as reserve to reduce the risk of insolvency.

     

    The Stoxx Europe 600 includes 600 companies across 18 European Union countries.

     

    A systemically important financial institution (SIFI) is a bank, insurance company, or other financial institution whose failure might trigger a financial crisis.

     

    The Single Resolution Fund (SRF) is an emergency fund that can be called upon in times of crisis.

  • Important notices for all regions

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    Important information - General

    This document may not be distributed in Canada or Japan. This document is intended for retail or professional clients only. This document is being circulated in good faith by Deutsche Bank Aktiengesellschaft, its branches (as permitted in any relevant jurisdiction), affiliated companies and its officers and employees (collectively, “Deutsche Bank”).

    This material is for your information only and is not intended as an offer, or recommendation or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any investment, security, financial instrument or other specific product, to conclude a transaction, or to provide any investment service or investment advice, or to provide any research, investment research or investment recommendation, in any jurisdiction. All materials in this communication are meant to be reviewed in their entirety.

    If a court of competent jurisdiction deems any provision of this disclaimer unenforceable, the remaining provisions will remain in full force and effect. This document has been prepared as a general market commentary without consideration of the investment needs, objectives or financial circumstances of any investor. Investments are subject to generic market risks which derive from the instrument or are specific to the instrument or attached to the particular issuer. Should such risks materialise, investors may incur losses, including (without limitation) a total loss of the invested capital. The value of investments can fall as well as rise and you may not recover the amount originally invested at any point in time. This document does not identify all the risks (direct or indirect) or other considerations which may be material to an investor when making an investment decision.

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    Kingdom of Bahrain

    For Residents of the Kingdom of Bahrain: This document does not constitute an offer for sale of, or participation in, securities, derivatives or funds marketed in Bahrain within the meaning of Bahrain Monetary Agency Regulations. All applications for investment should be received and any allotments should be made, in each case from outside of Bahrain. This document has been prepared for private information purposes of intended investors only who will be institutions. No invitation shall be made to the public in the Kingdom of Bahrain and this document will not be issued, passed to, or made available to the public generally. The Central Bank (CBB) has not reviewed, nor has it approved, this document or the marketing of such securities, derivatives, or funds in the Kingdom of Bahrain. Accordingly, the securities, derivatives or funds may not be offered or sold in Bahrain or to residents thereof except as permitted by Bahrain law. The CBB is not responsible for performance of the securities, derivatives, or funds.

     

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