Our new CIO Special finds that although a price recovery could start in 2023, markets are likely to remain choppy in the short term until the economy bottoms out and there is more clarity regarding the duration of the Fed's rate hike cycle.
We also observe that:
Aggregate corporate earnings in the S&P 500 may have shrunk by 2.2% in Q4 2022 due to declining margins.
Raw materials and basic materials, communications services and consumer cyclicals are likely to post significant earnings growth declines; only energy and industrials should post significant growth.
The environment for US equities remains difficult due to slowing economic activity, rising interest rates and overconfident earnings expectations.