Our new CIO Special discusses our economic outlook for Spain, with a particular focus on fiscal and debt vulnerabilities.
- We expect Spanish economic growth of 4.5% in 2022 followed by a slowdown to 2.4% in 2023, always assuming that there is no gas supply cut-off from Russia
- High energy prices, along with bottlenecks in the industrial sector started to dent growth in the first half of 2022, but the impact of these and other price pressures was offset by favourable factors including the recovery in international tourism, good employment trends and accumulated personal savings.
- However, the economic situation is now deteriorating rapidly. Supply problems and high production prices are weighing on the industrial sector, and the slowdown in the other European countries is complicating the outlook for the tourism sector after summer.
- NextGenerationEU (NGEU) funds remain key to progress in modernizing the economy. Unfortunately, these funds alone are not enough to achieve these goals; it is essential to make progress on the pending structural reforms.