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Key takeaways:

  • The European Central Bank (ECB) kept its monetary policy stance unchanged: Key interest rates were left untouched along with its balance sheet reduction policy.

  • The ECB emphasised the data dependency of future interest rate steps. However, the current level should be "maintained for a sufficiently long duration" to ensure a return to the inflation target.

  • As the decision was expected by financial markets, reactions to the decisions were moderate. 
     

1. What happened?

After ten consecutive key interest rate hikes, the ECB left its monetary policy unchanged at today's meeting in Athens, as almost unanimously expected by market players in the run-up. The deposit rate thus remains at 4.00%, the main refinancing rate at 4.50% and the marginal lending facility at 4.75%. In addition, neither the reduction of bond holdings was accelerated nor were the minimum reserve requirements for banks increased.

 

Financial markets had not been this unanimous about the expected outcome of an ECB meeting for quite some time. With the minutes of the September meeting already indicating that the last increase had not been a unanimous, clear-cut decision, and with economic data in many Eurozone countries deteriorating since then, a pause in interest rate hikes seemed obvious. Although the ECB emphasised that its monetary policy would remain dependent on incoming economic data, the interest rate peak has now likely been reached. This is also supported by ECB President Lagarde's statement at the press conference: "The risks to the growth outlook are on the downside.“

 

However, interest rate cuts are also not expected in the near future: "On the basis of its current assessment, the Governing Council is of the view that key ECB interest rates are at a level which, if maintained for a sufficiently long duration, will make a significant contribution to the goal of returning inflation to target," it said. The statement again referred to the noticeable tightening of financing conditions, which should also have a dampening effect on inflation.

 

According to ECB President Lagarde, there was no discussion of an early end to bond purchases from the PEPP pandemic programme. As things stand, the proceeds from maturing bonds will be reinvested in full until the end of 2024. In addition, the minimum reserve requirements for banks in the euro area also remain unchanged. 

 

2. How did markets react?

Reactions from financial markets to the central bank's decision were very moderate. After all, market players had unanimously expected a pause in interest rate hikes and only a change in bond purchases might have come as a surprise. Yields on Eurozone government bonds fell moderately, but primarily followed the changes in U.S. government bond yields. The euro traded almost unchanged against the U.S. dollar in a narrow range at around EUR/USD 1.055. The Eurostoxx 50 rose slightly, but gave up its gains in the wake of falling prices on U.S. stock exchanges. 

 

3. What does it mean for investors?

The ECB has made it clear that it will continue to act in a data-dependent manner and that today's decision does not necessarily signal the end of the hiking cycle.

 

However, much suggests that the interest rate peak has been reached: ECB President Lagarde acknowledged a current dip in the Eurozone economy and stressed that the risks to the growth outlook are on the downside. She also explained that the recent rise in bond yields, especially in the long maturities, was dampening economic activity and inflation as well. Thus the financial markets are doing some of the work for the ECB.

 

Investors should not expect a major change in monetary policy in December either. On the one hand, Ms Lagarde stressed the danger of a wage-price spiral, which could push inflation back up again in 2024. Equally, higher real incomes could then create stronger demand, which in turn could help the economy but also put pressure on prices. On the other hand, the overall tone of the press conference seemed quite cautious and deliberative. Moreover, the purchases of maturing bonds from the PEPP programme will continue and will not be ended prematurely. If the ECB sees the need for a more restrictive monetary policy, it is more likely to tweak this instrument than to raise key interest rates further.

 

However, investors should heed the ECB's "higher for longer" mantra. First rate cuts are not likely to be on the agenda until mid-2024 at the earliest.

 

Monetary policy is likely to remain unchanged and thus restrictive in the coming months. The downward potential for bond yields thus appears low. This could continue to provide a headwind for equity markets in the short term. In general, however, the development of U.S. yields should also determine the direction of travel. Economic risks remain, but should already be noticeably priced into the euro exchange rate. 

The Bank of Japan (BoJ) maintained its interest rates, yield curve control and ultra loose monetary policy amid global and domestic macro uncertainties

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  • Glossary

    The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the price of a basket of products and services based on typical household consumption.

     

    The Asset Purchase Programme (APP) is one of the new monetary policy instruments used by the European Central Bank (ECB) to maintain price stability against a background of interest rates close to their effective lower bound. 

     

    The ECB's Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme (PEPP) is a temporary programme to purchase private and public sector securities to address the serious risks to the monetary policy transmission mechanism and the outlook for the euro area posed bythe COVID-19 outbreak.

     

    The European Central Bank (ECB) is the central bank of the euro area. 

     

    USD is the currency code for the US dollar. 

     

    EUR is the currency code for the euro. 

     

    The deposit rate sets the amount of interest banks receive when they deposit money with the central bank until the next business day.

     

    The main refinancing rate is the interest rate at which banks can borrow money from the ECB for one week. 

     

    The marginal lending facility is the interest rate at which banks can borrow money from the ECB until the next business day.

     

    GDP Gross domestic product 

     

    Inflation measures how much a set of goods and services has become more expensive over a given period of time, usually a year. Core inflation is inflation excluding food and energy.

     

    Monetary policy describes all measures with which the central bank in particular controls the circulation of money and the supply of money and credit to the economy.

     

    Targeted longer-term refinancing operations (TLTROs) are operations conducted by the Eurosystem to provide funds to credit institutions.

     

    The euro area is the unofficial name for the 20 EU countries that are members of the European Economic and Monetary Union.

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