Artificial Intelligence: getting around Moravec's paradox?

Developments in U.S. tariff policy suggest that, when markets have a strong reaction, the White House is prepared to change course, says the Private Bank’s Global Chief Investment Officer, Christian Nolting. “Of course, this was denied by Washington, but I would be surprised if they really don’t look at it,” he says, noting that this applies more to bonds than it does to stocks.

U.S. trade and tariff policies and their lack of predictability have caused significant price fluctuations in all areas of the financial markets. Browse this page for more details.

On Wednesday, President Trump announced his decision to put a 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs on all countries except China. The reciprocal tariffs, which were announced a week prior, were set to take effect on April 9th and targeted a broad range of trading partners.

The U.S. administration has now announced the details of its “reciprocal” tariffs on trading partners. In this CIO Perspectives Memo, “Liberation Day” rattles markets, we discuss how they will work, what could happen next and the implications for economies, financial markets and investors.

In this PERSPECTIVES Viewpoint FX: Paradigm shift in the currencies markets – we examine the factors influencing the development of exchange rates in the next twelve months and present our corresponding forecasts.

Long term Capital Market Assumptions (LTCMA) form a vital component of systematic long-term asset allocation approaches. This report highlights significant developments to our 10-year (i.e. 2025-2034) asset class return assumptions since the last review, and the impact of macroeconomic and monetary policy developments, amongst other factors. It presents LTCMA for selected sub-asset class indices within equities, fixed income and commodities.

These changes should accelerate Europe’s path to decarbonization, reinforcing the EU’s leadership in climate policy. Industries will need to adapt to tighter regulations, while investors navigate an evolving carbon market with new risks and opportunities. The coming years could shape the balance between economic growth and environmental responsibility, potentially setting a precedent for future carbon pricing mechanisms worldwide.

In this PERSPECTIVES Viewpoint, we look at joint financing options and possible growth effects of increased defence spending, as well as special features within the European defence industry and their relevance for investors.

In this PERSPECTIVES Special, we investigate the structural drivers of healthcare along with the recent developments and main opportunities in the sector. We also provide a market outlook focused on earnings prospects, valuation, and potential cyclical tailwinds.

Christian Nolting, Global Chief Investment Officer for the Private Bank, discusses his predictions for Sunday's German federal elections, the possible outcomes and the implications for investors under different scenarios, with Nico Nonnenmacher, the Private Bank's Head of Communications.

In this PERSPECTIVES Special we look at both the prospects for tariffs implementation and their possible impact on U.S. and European equities.

In this PERSPECTIVES Special we will look for how any potential end to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine might impact financial markets.

On January 20, DeepSeek, an AI spin-off from a local Chinese hedge fund, launched a free AI assistant app. By yesterday, it had overtaken other well-known AI assistants in the number of smartphone app downloads. With its growing traction, the underlying details of its development gained attention as well.

In this PERSPECTIVES Special we examine the reasons behind the UK assets’ bumpy start to the year. Issues covered include the re-pricing of global interest rate expectations, vulnerabilities from the UK’s “twin deficit”, the fiscal outlook, Bank of England policy options and the outlook for sterling, UK bonds and UK equities.

In this CIO Special report, we discuss details of the fiscal package announced by the National People’s Congress’ Standing Committee meeting and provide an update on the macroeconomic performance of the Chinese economy.

Our Global Chief Investment Officer, Christian Nolting, provides an initial assessment of the U.S. election results and their market implications.