This CIO Special looks at why market timing – in essence, “buying low” and “selling high” – is not a reliable source of investment returns over the longer term.

Subjects covered include:

  • Implications of the lack of perfect information on future asset class returns
  • Structural reasons why markets are unpredictable and wrong timing is expensive
  • Why it makes sense to focus on time diversification instead

The report argues the case for staying invested over the longer term – as it points out, the vast majority of a portfolio’s returns over time will come from effective SAA.

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The CIO Special below is available to download. Please refer to the Important Information at the end of the memo for disclosures and risk warnings.



In Europe, Middle East and Africa as well as in Asia Pacific this material is considered marketing material, but this is not the case in the U.S. No assurance can be given that any forecast or target can be achieved. Forecasts are based on assumptions, estimates, opinions and hypothetical models which may prove to be incorrect. Past performance is not indicative of future returns. Investments come with risk. The value of an investment can fall as well as rise and you might not get back the amount originally invested at any point in time. Your capital may be at risk. 

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