Italy has weathered recent economic crises, including COVID-19 and the European energy shock, better than expected. In Q4 2023, Italy’s GDP growth was +0.2% QoQ, compared to 0.0% for the Eurozone. For the full year 2023, Italy’s growth was 0.7%, outperforming the Eurozone’s 0.5%.

Several factors contributed to Italy’s recovery. Among other factors, NextGenerationEU (NGEU), combined with the EU’s long-term budget, created a substantial stimulus package. Within NGEU, the Recovery and Resilience Facility (RRF) provided grants and loans totaling EUR723.8 billion to support reforms and investments in EU member states.


Italian capital markets performed well in 2023 and continued to do so in 2024. The FTSE MIB outperformed pan-European indices (except Greece) since the pandemic outbreak. Despite some risks, the FTSE MIB remains relatively cheap compared to other developed markets. Italian spreads to bunds tightened recently, but debt sustainability concerns persist. Overall, Italy’s positive economic backdrop is expected to continue, although risks remain.


Key takeaways:

  • Italy has weathered recent crises better than expected, thanks in part to EU funding. Rising Italian industrial production, coupled with services’ resilience, bodes well.
  • Disinflation, business confidence, investment and consumer purchasing power are amongst positive factors. But debt and deficit levels remain a concern.
  • Italian equities have performed well, thanks in part to FTSE MIB sector composition. BTP spreads are low, with positives still outweighing negatives.


The CIO Special below is available to download. Please refer to the Important Information at the end of the memo for disclosures and risk warnings.



Related special reports

See more

In Europe, Middle East and Africa as well as in Asia Pacific this material is considered marketing material, but this is not the case in the U.S. No assurance can be given that any forecast or target can be achieved. Forecasts are based on assumptions, estimates, opinions and hypothetical models which may prove to be incorrect. Past performance is not indicative of future returns. Performance refers to a nominal value based on price gains/losses and does not take into account inflation. Inflation will have a negative impact on the purchasing power of this nominal monetary value. Depending on the current level of inflation, this may lead to a real loss in value, even if the nominal performance of the investment is positive. Investments come with risk. The value of an investment can fall as well as rise and you might not get back the amount originally invested at any point in time. Your capital may be at risk.

Change of name: As part of Deutsche Bank’s Private Bank, the former International Private Bank also adopted this title on July 20, 2023.

The content and materials on this website may be considered Marketing Material. The market price of an investment can fall as well as rise and you might not get back the amount originally invested.  >The products, services, information and/or materials contained within these web pages may not be available for residents of certain jurisdictions. Please consider the sales restrictions relating to the products or services in question for further information. Deutsche Bank does not give tax or legal advice; prospective investors should seek advice from their own tax advisers and/or lawyers before entering into any investment.