CIO Publications

The first 100 days of the President Trump’s second presidency has clearly pointed to an ‘America First’ agenda. We take a closer look at portfolio impact and what this means for investors globally in this PERSPECTIVES Special.

In this CIO Special, we look at four possible investment areas and consider their merits.

This is an updated version of our quarterly PERSPECTIVES Economic and asset class outlook following our ad hoc CIO Day.

U.S. trade and tariff policies and their lack of predictability have caused significant price fluctuations in all areas of the financial markets. Browse this page for more details.

Long term Capital Market Assumptions (LTCMA) form a vital component of systematic long-term asset allocation approaches. This report highlights significant developments to our 10-year (i.e. 2025-2034) asset class return assumptions since the last review, and the impact of macroeconomic and monetary policy developments, amongst other factors. It presents LTCMA for selected sub-asset class indices within equities, fixed income and commodities.

The latest quarterly update of our views includes 2025 and 2026 forecasts for GDP growth and inflation, along with 12-month targets for key policy rates and markets.

The latest quarterly update of our views includes 2025 and 2026 forecasts for GDP growth and inflation, along with 12-month targets for key policy rates and markets.

These changes should accelerate Europe’s path to decarbonization, reinforcing the EU’s leadership in climate policy. Industries will need to adapt to tighter regulations, while investors navigate an evolving carbon market with new risks and opportunities. The coming years could shape the balance between economic growth and environmental responsibility, potentially setting a precedent for future carbon pricing mechanisms worldwide.

In this PERSPECTIVES Special, we investigate the structural drivers of healthcare along with the recent developments and main opportunities in the sector. We also provide a market outlook focused on earnings prospects, valuation, and potential cyclical tailwinds.

In this PERSPECTIVES Special we look at both the prospects for tariffs implementation and their possible impact on U.S. and European equities.

In this PERSPECTIVES Special we will look for how any potential end to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine might impact financial markets.

In our Future Fundamentals podcast, Naoko Ishii, Executive Vice President of the University of Tokyo and Director of the Center for Global Commons, and Markus Müller, our Chief Investment Officer for Sustainability, discuss putting nature on the balance sheet and how to build a coordinated financial response to this global challenge.

In this PERSPECTIVES Special we examine the reasons behind the UK assets’ bumpy start to the year. Issues covered include the re-pricing of global interest rate expectations, vulnerabilities from the UK’s “twin deficit”, the fiscal outlook, Bank of England policy options and the outlook for sterling, UK bonds and UK equities.

In PERSPECTIVES, the Deutsche Bank investment magazine, we review the landscape for the year ahead to identify the broader issues affecting investors over both short- and long-term horizons.

This is the latest edition of our PERSPECTIVES: Economic and asset class outlook. It provides a summary update of our economic and asset class views following our quarterly CIO Day.

Our 4th annual ESG Survey shows that investors are already investing in the sustainable transition, with evolving views on what are likely to be the leading future sectors and return drivers. Fueled by pragmatism as well as principles, ESG investment is happening. Read more.

In this CIO Special report, we discuss details of the fiscal package announced by the National People’s Congress’ Standing Committee meeting and provide an update on the macroeconomic performance of the Chinese economy.

Our Global Chief Investment Officer, Christian Nolting, provides an initial assessment of the U.S. election results and their market implications.

Our ESG and Sustainability Market Monitor publication is designed to help you stay informed and up-to-date on the latest developments in environmental, social and governance (ESG) investing and the transition to more sustainable economies.

As we inch closer to the U.S. presidential election, our new CIO Special explores the current state of the political landscape, key issues and policies that continue to shape the narrative for the race and its potential impact on a range of sectors for equity investors.

In the third issue of our quarterly publication PERSPECTIVES, we provide an update on our economic and investment outlook for the remainder of 2024 and beyond.

Portfolio decarbonization will become an increasingly important topic. Investors need to understand the key issues involved.

In this CIO Special report we examine what’s driving Earth Overshoot Day and where innovation is offering hope for our planet's future.

Carbon markets are likely to play a major role in promoting sustainability and innovation, offering new opportunities for investors and policymakers alike.

Our ESG Market Monitor publication is designed to help you stay informed and up-to-date on the latest developments in environmental, social and governance (ESG) investing and the transition to more sustainable economies.

With the French election resulting in a hung parliament, we discuss three possible political scenarios and their investment implications.

After Labour’s victory, the prospect of policy stability and cyclical growth will make UK assets worth a second look. We outline investment implications.

The renewable energy sector is experiencing remarkable growth. However, this rapid expansion faces challenges. In this report, we explain why the renewable energy sector’s trajectory remains positive.

In the second issue of our quarterly publication PERSPECTIVES, we provide an update on our economic and investment outlook for the third quarter of 2024 and beyond.

China announced more measures to support the property sector at a national government meeting on May 17. The stimulus measures come at a time when China’s property sector continues to weaken with price declines and lower transaction volumes.

Our ESG Market Monitor publication is designed to help you stay informed and up-to-date on the latest developments in environmental, social and governance (ESG) investing and the transition to more sustainable economies.

The Bank of England (BoE) maintained its key interest rate at 5.25% for the sixth consecutive meeting last Thursday. Signals from the Monetary Policy Council (MPC) indicate a potential rate cut as early as June 20, however.

This CIO Special addresses Spain’s recent positive economic performance, its fiscal balance situation and the prospects for Spanish debt & equity assets.

The recent positive performance by Chinese equities has been mainly driven by a modest improvement in macroeconomic data.

Italy has weathered recent economic crises, including COVID-19 and the European energy shock, better than expected. In Q4 2023, Italy’s GDP growth was +0.2% QoQ, compared to 0.0% for the Eurozone. For the full year 2023, Italy’s growth was 0.7%, outperforming the Eurozone’s 0.5%.

Singapore’s economic openness creates both challenges and strengths. The external sector is an unavoidable source of risk, the high cost of living is a concern and an ageing population. But, set against this, Singapore has a number of important strengths – a globally-connected economy, business-friendly environment, political system and benefits from its role in ASEAN.

It remains a challenging environment for the German housing market, but rate cuts, economic growth and structural rental market shortages should help the market to bottom out.

In our Future Fundamentals podcast, Karen Sack, of ORRAA, and Markus Müller, our Chief Investment Officer for ESG, take a deep dive into the sustainable blue economy.

These form a vital component some systematic long-term asset allocation approaches. We highlight significant developments since our last review and the reasons for them.

China recently released a flurry of Q1 economic data. But while GDP numbers were surprisingly strong, some other activity measures continue to disappoint. So has China’s economy really turned a corner?

Bitcoin is unlikely to assert itself as a widespread medium of exchange but may be on its way to mainstream acceptance as a store of value, although the risks of holding it remain high.

Favourable long-term trends for the electric-vehicle market remain intact – but an excess supply of battery metals means the outlook for miners remains clouded.

In the first issue of our new quarterly publication, we update our forecasts for 2024 on the macroeconomic front, as well as for equities, fixed income, commodities and foreign exchange.

Sustainable food systems (SFS) deliver food security and nutrition in ways that are sustainable in economic, social and environmental terms. Transitioning towards sustainable food systems could open up business opportunities worth USD4.5 trillion per year by 2030.

China’s National People’s Congress (NPC) has seen the announcement of a new 2024 growth target and discussion on how a “proactive” fiscal stance and “prudent” monetary policy can help the economy.

India, the world’s largest democracy, is heading to a national vote, with results expected by the end of May. Almost one billion registered voters will make this the biggest election exercise anywhere, ever.

The empowerment of women in the labour force is important in ways that go beyond the critical matter of social justice. Female financial inclusion and gender equality are “macrocritical” to boosting economic activity.

In a year that has been claimed to be the busiest in history for political elections, there will be no bigger event in the calendar than the race to be President of the United States, due to be held on November 5th.

Strategic asset allocation for private clients starts with detailed knowledge of an investor’s risk profile, investment horizon, and performance targets, among other considerations.

Our ESG Market Monitor publication is designed to help you stay informed and up-to-date on the latest developments in environmental, social and governance (ESG) investing and the transition to more sustainable economies.

For investors, digitisation provides a wide range of investment alternatives, with business activities such as cloud computing, Internet of Things (IoT), digital entertainment, and others showing substantial growth potential.

Consumers are holding up relatively well in the U.S. and Europe, despite a weaker economic environment. This could yield interesting opportunities in the stock market, particularly in the area of discretionary consumption.

ESG investment has gone mainstream, with performance implications. Energy transition may point the way to investing in the sustainable economy.

Adherence to strong convictions in the face of market-moving events can potentially trigger undesirable timing mistakes. Asymmetric strategies can allow more potential upside for a given portfolio risk.

After years of extremely low interest rates, the investment universe is now complete again thanks to the renewed attractiveness of bonds as an asset class – and is likely to remain so for the foreseeable future in our opinion.

U.S. growth stocks are probably still the way to go for the long term. European and Japanese financials could appeal too, as well as consumer discretionary, industrials and energy.

Be aware that measures to create stability may just create new risks. Rates are still on our radar.

Robust earnings growth is expected globally in 2024. Expectations of higher rates for longer may however put a lid on valuations expansion.

We see these as the key global challenges: how to sustainably utilise and conserve our global resources; how to provide for the global population, and how to develop key technologies to help us all do this.

We see these as the key global challenges: how to sustainably utilise and conserve our global resources; how to provide for the global population, and how to develop key technologies to help us all do this.

Expect only moderate growth in industrialised economies in 2024. The long-term challenge remains the delivery of investments to enhance economic competitiveness and fight climate change.

Domestic political developments are increasingly shaping foreign policy agendas – and 2024 will be the biggest election year in history.

Despite the economic, geopolitical and climatic challenges the world currently faces, we think that 2024 is likely to be a decent year for investors. In our annual outlook we present our current economic and asset class forecasts for 2024, possible key issues for the coming 12 months and our long-term investment themes.

Over the last three years, our annual survey has examined our private, business and institutional clients’ attitudes to the multiple dimensions of ESG (environmental, social and governance) investing. This year, we had 1,759 responses to our survey, double the 849 received in 2022.

Our ESG Market Monitor publication is designed to help you stay informed and up-to-date on the latest developments in environmental, social and governance (ESG) investing and the transition to more sustainable economies.

The key to sustained long-term returns from ESG investment is effective strategic asset allocation.

Once we looked to technology to make transportation systems cheaper, faster or safer. But “smart mobility” needs to be more sustainable too - and the primary challenge may be social in nature.

The Private Bank’s ESG CIO Markus Müller and Dr. Philipp Rode of the London School of Economics (LSE) look at how cities can adapt to increasing social, economic and environmental pressures in an ever-more urbanised world.

The expansion of the BRICS coalition, with six nations set to join at the start of 2024, will provide the group with increased access to mineral resources and impact global supply chains.

Environmental constraints mean that system changes will be necessary to meet four key human demands –for energy, food, manufacturing and mobility.

Our planet provides an abundance of land-based resources that we use to meet our needs, but just five key demand areas - cement, aluminium, steel, plastics, and food - account for around 37% of global CO2 emissions.

Deutsche Bank Private Bank’s ESG CIO Markus Müller and Anna Katharina Mayer, Club of Rome member and FindingSustainia co-founder, look at the complex issues around measuring sustainability – in other words, how we assess the real impact of corporate, government and individual actions on the natural world around us.

Rainforests provide invaluable ecosystem services supporting climate management, biodiversity, and rural livelihoods—but they are also fragile. In this publication, we focus on four key concerns: deforestation, climate change, poaching and illegal trade, and mining and oil extraction

Deutsche Bank Private Bank's ESG CIO Markus Müller and Deutsche Bank Research’s Marion Laboure look at value chains in the global economy – and why there are increasing concerns about their sustainability.

This CIO Special on one of our long-term investment themes looks at possible future developments in the infrastructure sector, based on the four key themes of resilience, sustainability, innovation and inclusivity.

In this publication, we take a close look at the environmental benefits we gain from the marine environment, the definition of a Sustainable Blue Economy, development areas and problems and how we can help finance sustainable maritime nature-based projects.

Our ESG Market Monitor publication is designed to help you stay informed and up-to-date on the latest developments in environmental, social and governance (ESG) investing and the transition to more sustainable economies.

In our publication, we take a deep look at the importance of biodiversity, particularly from an investor's perspective.

In our latest publication, we take a deep look at the importance of biodiversity, particularly from an investor's perspective.

Our CIO Special report looks at a central challenge for the world today: how we produce and use energy in a more sustainable way.

In our CIO Special, we look at the regulatory picture in jurisdictions around the world and consider the investment outlook.

In our latest CIO Special – India: Why it will be a USD 7 trillion economy by 2030 – we look at the structural shifts taking place currently in India which are setting the stage for it to become the fourth largest economy in the world by the end of this decade.

Mangroves are highly important for biodiversity and play a crucial role as nature-based solutions to mitigate the effects of climate change, even though they make up less than 1% of all tropical forests worldwide.

Mangroves are highly important for biodiversity and play a crucial role as nature-based solutions to mitigate the effects of climate change, even though they make up less than 1% of all tropical forests worldwide.

Sustainability and security considerations, enhanced policy support and technological development are making European infrastructure an investment focus.

Some measures of inflation may be at, or near, their peak but this is by no means the end of the story. In our new special report, we draw some broad conclusions.

The real estate sector faces a difficult global economic environment as central banks continue to tighten monetary policy. We consider the varying circumstances and outlooks for different sectors and regions.

In this year's survey we asked almost twice as many questions, with the aim of getting a more complete view of our private, institutional and business clients’ attitudes to ESG.

Claire Coustar of Deutsche Bank’s Investment Bank joins Markus Müller, Chief Investment Officer ESG & Global Head Chief Investment Office at Deutsche Bank's Private Bank, to discuss the recent evolution of the sovereign carbon credits market and how it will help us value and protect natural assets.

Cities both exacerbate climate change and suffer from its consequences – e.g. through flooding, or excess heat, or changing patterns of disease. Getting them to work better must be a key environmental and social priority.

Energy price volatility has had an obvious impact on ESG portfolios this year, but we also need to consider the longer-term dynamics around energy and commodity markets.

The Ocean provides key ecosystem services that are crucial for human wellbeing and the prosperity of the global economy. Learn more on how a sustainable blue economy could be implemented.

Our CIO Special looks at the rapidly growing Asian energy market and how policymakers are trying to satisfy growing demand – while also reducing carbon emissions and improving energy security.

Our CIO Special looks at the rapidly growing voluntary sovereign carbon credit market, reinvigorated by agreement on a new framework for asset issuance.

In this CIO Special we look at the remarkable progress that India has achieved in its energy transition from fossil-fuel based sources to sustainable and green ones.

Nature-based Solutions (NbS) will help us tackle the climate crisis. But to fully harness their potential, we need a precise conceptual understanding of what they are and the benefits they provide.

Marion Laboure, Senior Economist at Deutsche Bank and Research Lecturer at Harvard University, joins Markus Müller, Chief Investment Officer ESG & Global Head Chief Investment Office at Deutsche Bank's Private Bank, to discuss the continuing process of workplace change and the Remote working and Robotics (ReRo) revolution.

This introductory guide to the global threats facing coral reefs – and what we can do to reduce them – is part of our new CIO Nature Series providing insights on nature-based solutions to address climate impacts and foster adaptation efforts.

As we mark the UN’s World Oceans Day for 2022, we face major challenges in building a sustainable blue economy. This CIO Special, produced in collaboration with the Ocean Risk and Resilience Action Alliance (ORRAA), explains how the global financial sector will play an important role in finding solutions.

Remote working looks likely to persist in some form for many employees as the world learns how to live with coronavirus. But our new CIO Special argues that remote working needs to be seen as just one component of a continuing process of workplace change.

Our CIO Special looks at likely future trends in ESG assessment and why biodiversity will be an increasingly important consideration.

In our new CIO Special we analyse the developments and trends impinging on cyber security and we focus on the issues and challenges created by increasing online transactions and interactions.

Our CIO Special report and introductory video discuss how the VC sector is developing and its role in portfolios.

Find out more about the role of Venture Capitalists in our CIO Special report.

Read about the latest trends in global Venture Capital investment and the wide range of risks associated in our CIO Special venture capital report. Browse today.

Find out more about the potential role of Venture Capital investing in portfolios as well as diversification in our CIO Special report.

Find out more about the history and lifecycle of Venture Capital investing in our CIO Special report.

We attempt to summarise the main positives and negatives of Venture Capital investing in our CIO Special report.

Our new CIO Special looks at why AI technology is now advancing fast, and the evolution of the sector from an investor’s perspective.

In our new CIO Special, we look at the major ongoing transformation of our transportation infrastructure.

Our special report looks at the topic of biodiversity from a natural capital perspective, and provides insights into how we can start to tackle the “triple planetary crisis” around climate, nature and pollution. With a preface by Professor Sir Partha Dasgupta, Frank Ramsey Professor Emeritus of Economics at the University of Cambridge.

The ongoing climate crisis, the loss of biodiversity and the degradation of ecosystems combine to form the greatest social challenge that we face

Our latest CIO Special report Venture Capital investing: returns and diversification discusses how the sector is developing and its role in portfolios. Read more.

Rising seas will compound other effects from climate change and ocean degradation. They will have major implications for the overall macroeconomic and policy outlook, and for investment.

Millennials form an increasingly important group in many economies, in both economic and political terms. Our new CIO Special report looks at trends that are shaped by the Millennial generation and how investors can benefit from them.

Doug McCauley, professor of ocean science at the University of California Santa Barbara and director of the Benioff Ocean Initiative, joins Markus Müller, head of the Chief Investment Office at Deutsche Bank's International Private Bank, to discuss the deep sea and the importance of taking a long-term, sustainable approach to its development.

Our latest CIO Special looks at the importance of biodiversity and presents the results from our survey of investor attitudes towards environmental, social and governance (ESG) investing.