CIO Publications

Over the last three years, our annual survey has examined our private, business and institutional clients’ attitudes to the multiple dimensions of ESG (environmental, social and governance) investing. This year, we had 1,759 responses to our survey, double the 849 received in 2022.

Fresh economic data and easing geopolitical tensions point to a potential outperformance for Chinese stocks in the coming quarters.

U.S. inflation fell more than expected in October, lifting stock markets and reducing expectations for an interest-rate rise from the Federal Reserve in December.

Indonesia’s Q3 GDP came in below expectations, but the country remains among the fastest growing Asian economies.

Official U.S. employment data for the month of October pointed to much-needed softening of the labor market and reinforced the Fed’s stance to keep rates steady.

The Bank of England left interest rates unchanged as expected, and predicted that the U.K. government would meet its goal of halving inflation by the end of the year.

The Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged, but emphasized that inflation remains “elevated” and that it is committed to bringing it down to the ideal 2%.

The Bank of Japan is performing a balancing act between managing domestic growth, reaching its inflation target, and factoring in the depreciation of the yen.

The European Central Bank left interest rates unchanged - and interest rate cuts are not expected in the near future.

The key to sustained long-term returns from ESG investment is effective strategic asset allocation.

Once we looked to technology to make transportation systems cheaper, faster or safer. But “smart mobility” needs to be more sustainable too - and the primary challenge may be social in nature.

China's gross domestic product for the third quarter beat analysts' expectations, but headwinds from the weak property sector and uncertainty from geopolitical tensions persist.

The Private Bank’s ESG CIO Markus Müller and Dr. Philipp Rode of the London School of Economics (LSE) look at how cities can adapt to increasing social, economic and environmental pressures in an ever-more urbanised world.

The recent discussions regarding looser fiscal policy in Italy have exacerbated the volatility on the bond market, leading to a moderate widening of its spreads.

The expansion of the BRICS coalition, with six nations set to join at the start of 2024, will provide the group with increased access to mineral resources and impact global supply chains.

Slightly stronger-than-expected U.S. inflation data for September might not be enough to persuade the Fed to act at its next policy meeting, although a further rate hike in November can’t be completely ruled out.

Environmental constraints mean that system changes will be necessary to meet four key human demands –for energy, food, manufacturing and mobility.

The September nonfarm payrolls report saw labor markets strongly surpass forecasts, raising expectations for an interest-rate increase at the next Federal Reserve meeting.

Our latest CIO Insights quarterly provides an update on our economic and investment outlook for the fourth quarter of 2023 and beyond.

The Bank of Japan left its negative interest rate and yield curve control parameters unchanged in light of the “extremely high uncertainties” in the growth and inflation outlook globally and in Japan.

The Federal Reserve lifted its economic projections for the year and left interest rates unchanged, but reiterated that future policy decisions will depend on economic data.

The Bank of England decided on a knife-edge vote to leave interest rates unchanged, but left the door open for further increases in the future to get inflation under control.

The German economy is faltering and there is a growing debate about the appropriate policy response, but we remain confident that the country can address its structural challenges.

China’s economic indicators for August showed signs of improvement, but market sentiment toward the country's equities could remain relatively weak.

The eurozone interest rate peak seems to have been reached – but rates will likely need to remain high for a longer period of time to get inflation under control.

U.S. inflation came in higher than expected for the month of August, but not enough for investors believe it would change the Federal Reserve's expected course of action.

Over the weekend, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda announced that Japan could soon end its decades-long negative interest rate regime.

Chinese regulators announced more supportive measures to support the property market, including reducing downpayments and lowering mortgage rates.

The August U.S. jobs report showed a combination of higher unemployment and slower wage growth, increasing expectations that the Federal Reserve would leave interest rates unchanged at its next meeting.

The August U.S. jobs report showed a combination of higher unemployment and slower wage growth, increasing expectations that the Federal Reserve would leave interest rates unchanged at its next meeting.

Chinese regulators announced a slew of measures to support equities, and we expect more aggressive stimulus ahead, especially in the property market.

Chinese regulators announced a slew of measures to support equities, and we expect more aggressive stimulus ahead, especially in the property market.

Our planet provides an abundance of land-based resources that we use to meet our needs, but just five key demand areas - cement, aluminium, steel, plastics, and food - account for around 37% of global CO2 emissions.

Deutsche Bank Private Bank’s ESG CIO Markus Müller and Anna Katharina Mayer, Club of Rome member and FindingSustainia co-founder, look at the complex issues around measuring sustainability – in other words, how we assess the real impact of corporate, government and individual actions on the natural world around us.

China released weaker-than-expected industrial production and retail sales data and the country's central bank delivered earlier-than-expected interest-rate cuts.

China released weaker-than-expected industrial production and retail sales data and the country's central bank delivered earlier-than-expected interest-rate cuts.

The ratings for investment-grade corporate bonds in the U.S. and the Eurozone have developed positively recently - despite difficult economic conditions.

The Chinese government has left no doubt that it is serious about addressing the country's sluggish growth with targeted support measures, but recent economic data confirm the near-term challenges.

Slightly better-than-expected U.S. inflation data reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve may not increase benchmark interest rates in September.

Slightly better-than-expected U.S. inflation data reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve may not increase benchmark interest rates in September.

The Reserve Bank of India paused on interest-rate increases for the third consecutive time, with statements conveying this to be a hawkish hold.

The Reserve Bank of India paused on interest-rate increases for the third consecutive time, with statements conveying this to be a hawkish hold.

The U.S. jobs report for July showed further signs of cooling in the labor market but did not appear to alter expectations for the Federal Reserve's next policy decision.

Fitch Ratings surprised markets with a downgrade for longer-term U.S. sovereign debt, pointing to the protracted negotiations around the debt ceiling and noting that “cliff-edge” resolution talks have become more frequent in recent years.

The Bank of England raised its key interest rate as expected, and the central bank's governor said that it was too early to declare victory in the fight against inflation.

The Bank of England raised its key interest rate as expected, and the central bank's governor said that it was too early to declare victory in the fight against inflation.

Fitch Ratings surprised markets with a downgrade for longer-term U.S. sovereign debt, pointing to the protracted negotiations around the debt ceiling and noting that “cliff-edge” resolution talks have become more frequent in recent years.

Rainforests provide invaluable ecosystem services supporting climate management, biodiversity, and rural livelihoods—but they are also fragile. In this publication, we focus on four key concerns: deforestation, climate change, poaching and illegal trade, and mining and oil extraction

In the medium term we continue to favour European banks over their U.S. peers, but note that investors willing to look beyond the short-term headwinds may find interesting opportunities in the U.S.

The Bank of Japan decided to allow for more flexibility in its yield curve control. As an outlier among industrialised countries, Japan sees itself increasingly forced to tighten monetary policy.

The Bank of Japan decided to allow for more flexibility in its yield curve control. As an outlier among industrialised countries, Japan sees itself increasingly forced to tighten monetary policy.

The European Central Bank raised its key interest rates and emphasised the economic slowdown in the region. Another rate hike by the end of the year is likely.

The European Central Bank raised its key interest rates and emphasised the economic slowdown in the region. Another rate hike by the end of the year is likely.

The Federal Reserve lifted interest rates and said it would focus on economic data in future policy decisions as it seeks to bring inflation down to target. Elevated labor and price data will keep the potential of further hikes “on the table”.

The Federal Reserve lifted interest rates and said it would focus on economic data in future policy decisions as it seeks to bring inflation down to target. Elevated labor and price data will keep the potential of further hikes “on the table”.

The Politburo meeting on Monday delivered strong high- level guidance to stimulate China’s economy, especially in consumption support and property sectors.

The Politburo meeting on Monday delivered strong high- level guidance to stimulate China’s economy, especially in consumption support and property sectors.

Japanese equities have been among the top performers this year, with the TOPIX posting a striking 20.9% return in JPY terms since the beginning of the year, and the Nikkei 225 climbing to a 33-year high. This new CIO Special on Japan looks at the factors that may have contributed to this success and future developments in the country.

Spain's general elections resulted in a victory for the centre-right Partido Popular (PP). However, not even with the support of the right-wing VOX will it be able to form a government

Spain's general elections resulted in a victory for the centre-right Partido Popular (PP). However, not even with the support of the right-wing VOX will it be able to form a government

China’s economy grew during the second quarter but came in below forecasts, with weak performances for the property market and private investment.

Deutsche Bank Private Bank's ESG CIO Markus Müller and Deutsche Bank Research’s Marion Laboure look at value chains in the global economy – and why there are increasing concerns about their sustainability.

Produced in collaboration with DB Research, our new report identifies key challenges for globalisation and examines whether we are seeing the “great decoupling” of supply chains and other economic links.

An apparent slowdown in U.S. inflation has fueled optimism that the Federal Reserve will soon be able to stop its aggressive monetary policy action.

The latest jobs report appears to be showing some signs of moderation within the labor market, with nonfarm payrolls delivering the smallest increase since the end of 2020 as well as its first estimate miss in 15 months.

In this publication, we review the economic and political uncertainty facing Spain, update our growth forecasts for the country and detail the investment implications for different Spanish assets going forward.

This CIO Special on one of our long-term investment themes looks at possible future developments in the infrastructure sector, based on the four key themes of resilience, sustainability, innovation and inclusivity.

Our latest CIO Insights quarterly provides an update on our economic and investment outlook for the third quarter of 2023 and beyond.

Following stubbornly high inflation figures for May, the Bank of England (BoE) has raised its key interest rate by 50 basis points (bps).

The People's Bank of China as expected lowered its 1Y Loan prime rate to 3.55% from 3.65% and its 5Y Loan prime rate to 4.2% from 4.3% to support the slowing economy.

As expected, the ECB raised its key interest rates by 25 basis points each and confirmed it would stop reinvesting in bonds that are maturing under the “Asset Purchase Programme” (APP) as of July.

The FOMC announced for the first time in 15 months, its unanimous decision to keep the Fed Funds Rate at the current level of 5.00% - 5.25%.

The latest release for CPI from the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed a YoY decline in the rate of consumer price inflation from +4.9% to +4.0% for May.

The PBoC lowers 7-day reverse repo to 1.9% vs. previous 2.0% as the economy lost some momentum recently with weak exports and domestic demand.

In this publication, we outline the possible next steps for investors as the U.S. Treasury looks to replenish its Treasury General Account (TGA) with a surge in supply.

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has paused rates for a second consecutive time and has kept its stance of ‘withdrawal of accommodation’ unchanged, with a clear agenda of bringing inflation even lower.

In this publication, we take a close look at the environmental benefits we gain from the marine environment, the definition of a Sustainable Blue Economy, development areas and problems and how we can help finance sustainable maritime nature-based projects.

Our ESG Market Monitor publication is designed to help you stay informed and up-to-date on the latest developments in environmental, social and governance (ESG) investing and the transition to more sustainable economies.

Recent macro data in Asia are pointing to a slowdown in the region’s trade growth momentum.

The recurring negotiations around the U.S. debt limit, commonly called the debt ceiling, have developed into one of the more uncomfortable aspects of political life.

A changing investment environment has prompted many investors to question their approach to asset allocation and risk management.

The upward trajectory of Asia Pacific tourism is expected to continue in the coming months, driven largely by the resurgence in Chinese outbound travel.

U.S. inflation continued to moderately decline in April, supporting the case that the Federal Reserve will not raise interest rates at its next meeting.

The U.S. jobs report for April showed a continued strengthening of the labor market with an increase in payrolls that beat expectations.

The Federal Reserve's policy decision and subsequent statement gave the clearest signal that the most aggressive monetary policy period since the 1980s is coming to an end.

The European Central Bank maintained its course with a rate hike of 25 basis points and signalled that it could tighten policy further if inflation remains high.

The Bank of Japan kept its policy rate unchanged, in line with market expectations, but signalled a possible shift to its yield curve control in the future.

China's GDP grew more than expected during the first quarter, confirming the rebound of its economy since the reopening measures late last year.

In our latest publication, we take a deep look at the importance of biodiversity, particularly from an investor's perspective.

U.S. inflation continued its downward trend in March, but markets took the data in stride because the shift was not enough to change the likely path of Federal Reserve policy.

Our CIO Special report looks at a central challenge for the world today: how we produce and use energy in a more sustainable way.

The U.S. jobs report for March showed a continued strengthening of the employment market. But over the longer term, hiring appears to be cooling in an orderly fashion.

The Reserve Bank of India paused in its hiking cycle, while keeping the stance of ‘withdrawal of accommodation’ unchanged. Markets reacted positively to this decision across the board.

Although the Bank of England (BoE) raised its key rate in March and is now forecasting UK GDP growth in Q2 instead of contraction, it has stated that the monitoring of financial and credit conditions will be paramount going forward.

China's economic recovery can be expected to accelerate in the second quarter. Specific industries within Europe may also do well, supported by this tailwind from China.

The FOMC announced a further increase to the Fed Funds Rate by 25-basis points. The Committee readjusted its statement language to suggest that some “policy firming” would take place instead of ongoing rate increases.

Our latest CIO Insights quarterly provides an update on our economic and investment outlook for the second quarter of 2023 and beyond.

Once again, the European Central Bank maintained its monetary policy course and the pace of interest rate hikes, as it raised its key interest rates by 50 basis points.

Chancellor Jeremy Hunt presented the latest Spring Budget, where he declared that the UK economy would avoid a recession before laying out his “Budget for Growth” plans.

U.S. inflation continued its downward trend in February, with the headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) coming down from the previous month's reading.

The latest Nonfarm payrolls report surprised markets on the upside with U.S. employers continuing to hire workers at a strong pace.

In our CIO Special, we look at the regulatory picture in jurisdictions around the world and consider the investment outlook.

China has set a conservative growth target of around 5% for the year, with officials avoiding any large stimulus to support the economy.

In our latest CIO Special – India: Why it will be a USD 7 trillion economy by 2030 – we look at the structural shifts taking place currently in India which are setting the stage for it to become the fourth largest economy in the world by the end of this decade.

China’s PMIs for both manufacturing and service sectors were strong in February, indicating a faster-than-expected economic recovery after the re-opening.

In our latest CIO Special we look at why U.S. small cap equities within the S&P 600 have recently outperformed the S&P 500 and the outlook for both indices

In our CIO Special, we look at the performance by emerging market (EM) equities that has become more optimistic about the potential boost from China's Covid reopening.

After supply chain problems, geopolitical tensions, the aftermath of the global pandemic, a worsening interest rate outlook and surging inflation made 2022 a difficult year for semis investors, the sector is now on the road to recovery.

Today saw the latest release for CPI from the Bureau of Labor Statistics showing a YoY decline in consumer prices from 6.5% to 6.4% for January. Whilst the latest figures continue to show inflation is falling, the pace of which has slowed considerably versus market consensus, which was expecting a decline of 6.2%.

Our latest CIO Special highlights the structural issues facing the German economy in the aftermath of the Covid and energy crises.

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) hiked its repo rate by 25 bps to 6.5% – its slowest pace in this cycle.

Our latest CIO Special highlights the significance of China’s swift decision to end its zero-Covid policy and implement economic stimulus measures for countries around the globe that are major exporters of commodities.

The Bank of England (BoE) raised its key rate by 50 basis points to 4.0% yesterday – as widely expected – at its scheduled February meeting.

As expected, the European Central Bank (ECB) maintained its monetary policy stance and the pace of interest rate hikes. As in December 2022, it is raising key interest rates by 50 basis points.

In today’s budget, the government kept its focus on job creation and growth-oriented capital expenditure, while staying on the path of fiscal consolidation.

The FOMC announced a further increase to the Fed Funds Rate by 25-basis points. The decision is a further downshift from the previous FOMC meeting where rates were raised by 50-basis points.

China’s January PMIs showed a strong rebound due to a faster-than-expected re-opening.